Markets: A Rigorous Course

M02 · Problem 11 ★★ Check

Regimes make fat tails

Daily returns are rt=σtztr_t = \sigma_t z_t where σt=0.8%\sigma_t = 0.8\% with probability 0.9 and 2.5%2.5\% with probability 0.1, independent of ztz_t. (a) With zt∼N(0,1)z_t \sim N(0,1), compute the unconditional daily standard deviation and excess kurtosis. (b) Repeat with ztz_t a unit-variance Student-tt with 5 degrees of freedom (kurtosis 3+6/(ν−4)3 + 6/(\nu-4)). (c) Relate the answers to Proposition 2.13(c) and to Cont's stylized fact (7).

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