Markets: A Rigorous Course

Reference

Glossary

Terms as this course uses them, with the modules where they matter.

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0DTE option M09AM01M09

An option traded on its own expiry day ("zero days to expiry"). Its price is almost all gamma and theta, so it behaves like a lottery ticket on the day's move. SEBI's FY26 study (released 20 Aug 2026) reports that 59% of index-option turnover was in contracts on their expiry day.

A

Abnormal return (AR) M12M06A

The part of a security's return on an event day not explained by a model of normal returns, usually the market model: ARiτ=Riτ−α^i−β^iRmτAR_{i\tau} = R_{i\tau} - \hat\alpha_i - \hat\beta_i R_{m\tau}, with α^i,β^i\hat\alpha_i, \hat\beta_i estimated on a pre-event estimation window. Its variance includes the estimation error of the fitted parameters.

Active expense ratio M06B

The expense ratio implicitly paid for the part of a fund that differs from its index: [c−(1−AS)cI]/AS[c - (1 - AS)c_I]/AS for fund cost cc, active share ASAS and index cost cIc_I (Miller 2007; M06B (6B.33)).

Active share M06B

Half the sum of absolute differences between a fund's and its benchmark's weights, 12∑i∣wp,i−wb,i∣\tfrac12\sum_i|w_{p,i} - w_{b,i}|: 0 for the index, 1 for a portfolio with no common holdings (Cremers and Petajisto 2009).

Adverse selection M05M01

The loss a liquidity provider suffers by trading with counterparties who know more than she does. In the Glosten–Milgrom model the bid–ask spread exists exactly to cover this expected loss to informed traders; a resting limit order is exposed to it whenever news arrives before it can be cancelled.

After-market order (AMO) M01

An order entered with a broker outside market hours and sent to the exchange at the next session's open. It is a broker convenience, not a separate exchange order type.

Almgren–Chriss model M05

An optimal-execution model in which a trader liquidates XX shares over a horizon TT, trading off expected impact cost (permanent and temporary impact, linear in trading rate) against the variance of price risk with risk aversion λ\lambda. The optimal holdings follow x(t)=Xsinh⁡(κ(T−t))/sinh⁡(κT)x(t) = X\sinh(\kappa(T-t))/\sinh(\kappa T) with κ=λσ2/η\kappa = \sqrt{\lambda\sigma^2/\eta}: more risk aversion front-loads the trading.

AMC (asset management company) M06B

The company that manages a mutual fund's schemes under an agreement with the trustee and earns the management fee. Its revenue is roughly AUM × fee yield, its costs are mostly fixed, so its profits move more than the market (M06B Proposition 6B.5.1).

American option M08

An option that may be exercised at any time up to expiry. An American call on a non-dividend-paying stock is never optimally exercised early, so it is worth the same as the European call; American puts can be worth more. NSE index and stock options are European.

Anchor investor M06A

A qualified institutional buyer allotted shares in an Indian IPO before the issue opens to the public, at a price within the band, subject to a lock-in. The anchor lock-in expiries (30 and 90 days after allotment) are dated supply events for the stock.

Anchored VWAP M04A

A VWAP whose sums start at a chosen event (an earnings day, a breakout bar, a crash low) rather than at the session open. On daily bars it is computed with the typical price (H+L+C)/3(H+L+C)/3 as a proxy for each day's trade prices.

Annualised premium equivalent (APE) M06A

A life insurer's measure of new business: regular first-year premiums plus one tenth of single premiums written in the period, so that regular- and single-premium products are comparable.

Arbitrage fund M06BM07

A fund that buys stocks and sells their futures, earning the futures basis (the cash-and-carry return of M07 · 7.1). Its risk resembles a money-market fund's, but it is taxed as equity-oriented.

ARMA model M13

An autoregressive moving-average model, ARMA(p,qp,q): Xt=c+∑i=1pϕiXt−i+εt+∑j=1qθjεt−jX_t = c + \sum_{i=1}^p \phi_i X_{t-i} + \varepsilon_t + \sum_{j=1}^q \theta_j\varepsilon_{t-j} with white-noise εt\varepsilon_t. It is the baseline linear model for forecasting a stationary series; the squared shocks of a GARCH(1,1) follow an ARMA(1,1).

ASM and GSM (surveillance measures) M01

The Additional Surveillance Measure and Graded Surveillance Measure frameworks under which Indian exchanges place stocks with unusual price, volume or fundamental characteristics into stages carrying tighter price bands, higher margins or trade-for-trade settlement. The lists change frequently; check the exchange's current list. Not covered in detail in the notes.

At the money (ATM) M08M09M09A

An option whose strike is approximately equal to the current price of the underlying, K≈SK \approx S (desks often use the forward, K≈FK \approx F). ATM options have the highest time value, vega, and (near expiry) gamma; ATM gamma grows like 1/(σS2πτ)1/(\sigma S\sqrt{2\pi\tau}) as τ→0\tau \to 0.

Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test M13AM10

A test of the null of a unit root, based on the tt-statistic of γ\gamma in Δyt=γyt−1+∑jδjΔyt−j+et\Delta y_t = \gamma y_{t-1} + \sum_j \delta_j\Delta y_{t-j} + e_t (with optional constant and trend). Under the null the statistic has a non-standard Dickey–Fuller distribution, so Student-tt critical values are wrong; with a constant the 5% critical value is about −2.86-2.86.

Autoregressive model, AR(p) M13M13AM10

A model Xt=c+∑i=1pϕiXt−i+εtX_t = c + \sum_{i=1}^p \phi_i X_{t-i} + \varepsilon_t. An AR(1) is stationary iff ∣ϕ∣<1|\phi| < 1, with autocorrelations ρk=ϕk\rho_k = \phi^k, forecast EtXt+h=μ+ϕh(Xt−μ)\mathbb E_t X_{t+h} = \mu + \phi^h(X_t - \mu) and half-life ln⁡0.5/ln⁡ϕ\ln 0.5/\ln\phi; an AR(pp) is stationary iff the roots of its characteristic polynomial lie outside the unit circle.

Average true range (ATR) M04AM03

A moving average (simple or exponential) over nn bars of the true range TR=max⁡(H,C−1)−min⁡(L,C−1)\mathrm{TR} = \max(H, C_{-1}) - \min(L, C_{-1}), the bar's range extended to include any gap from the previous close; it is a volatility estimate in price units. Under Brownian motion σ^≈ATR/(1.596 S)\hat\sigma \approx \mathrm{ATR}/(1.596\,S) per bar, so stops set in ATR multiples have roughly the same stop-out probability across stocks.

B

Backtest M04M13

A simulation of a trading rule on historical data, producing the returns the rule would have earned after costs. A valid backtest uses only information available at each decision time (no look-ahead), point-in-time universes (no survivorship bias), realistic costs and fills, and reports how many variants were tried.

Backwardation M10M07

A futures curve whose prices fall with maturity, so that near futures (and spot) are above deferred futures; in the cost-of-carry relation the convenience yield exceeds interest plus storage. M07 states it for one contract as F<SF < S (when q>rq > r); M10 defines it by the slope of the curve, Ft(T)F_t(T) decreasing in TT. A long who rolls in backwardation earns a positive roll yield.

Bai–Perron test M13A

A procedure that estimates the number and dates of multiple structural breaks in a regression by minimising the sum of squared residuals over all admissible partitions, with sup-F type tests for the number of breaks. It is the tool when break dates are unknown and there may be more than one.

Bank Nifty M01M08M09M13A

The Nifty Bank index of the most liquid large Indian bank stocks, maintained by NSE Indices, and the underlying of NSE's Bank Nifty futures and options. Lot size 30 and no weekly expiry, as of the 5 Nov 2026 NSE F&O bhavcopy.

Base expense ratio (BER) M06B

The capped part of a mutual fund's expenses under the 2026 Regulations: management fee and recurring expenses including distribution commission, excluding statutory levies, brokerage up to the permitted limit and transaction costs. Caps run from 2.10% (first ₹500 cr of an equity scheme) down to 0.95%; 0.90% for index funds and ETFs (M06B Table 6B.1).

Base rate M13M01M05M12

The unconditional frequency of an outcome in a reference class, used as the prior before case-specific evidence. For an individual Indian F&O trader, SEBI's studies give a base rate of loss close to 0.9; in forecasting, always forecasting the base rate is perfectly calibrated but has no resolution.

Basis M07M10M13A

The futures price minus the spot price, b=F−Sb = F - S (the course's convention; Hull uses S−FS - F). It is about S(r−q)τS(r-q)\tau for a financial future, positive in contango, and converges to zero at expiry; a hedger's effective price is the futures price locked in minus the basis at close-out.

Basis point (bp) M01M05M11

One hundredth of a percentage point, 10−410^{-4}. Trading costs, spreads, yields and rate changes are quoted in basis points: a ₹1 lakh intraday NSE round trip costs about 8.27 bp at the charges of 6 Nov 2026.

Basis risk M07M13A

The risk that the basis at the time a hedge is closed differs from what was expected, so that a futures hedge does not lock in a known price. It arises when the hedge is lifted before expiry, or when the hedged asset differs from the futures' underlying (cross-hedging).

Bayesian updating M12M13M05

Revising probabilities on new evidence by Bayes' rule, P(s∣n)∝P(n∣s)P(s)P(s\mid n) \propto P(n\mid s)P(s). In odds form, posterior odds = prior odds × likelihood ratio, so log-odds add across independent pieces of evidence; the course uses it to update scenario probabilities and forecast-journal entries.

Beneish M-score M06

A probit-based score built from eight ratios of two consecutive years of financial statements (receivables, gross margin, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, accruals, leverage), designed to flag earnings manipulation. The usual flag is M>−1.78M > -1.78; it is a screen for further forensic work, not proof.

Benjamini–Hochberg procedure M04

A multiple-testing rule that sorts mm pp-values and rejects the hypotheses with the kk smallest, where kk is the largest index with p(k)≤kα/mp_{(k)} \le k\alpha/m. Under independence it controls the false discovery rate at m0α/m≤αm_0\alpha/m \le \alpha; it is less conservative than Bonferroni.

Berk–Green model M06B

A model in which skilled managers face decreasing returns to scale and investors supply money until expected net alpha is zero. Flows chase past performance, net returns do not persist, and the skill is paid to the manager as fees (Berk and Green 2004; M06B Proposition 6B.7.1).

Beta M06M07M12M06AM14

The slope of an asset's return on the market's return, βi=Cov⁡(Ri,RM)/Var⁡(RM)\beta_i = \operatorname{Cov}(R_i, R_M)/\operatorname{Var}(R_M). In the CAPM it sets the asset's risk premium; in hedging it converts a portfolio's value into a number of index futures; in event studies it is a parameter of the market model.

Beta hedge M07

Changing a portfolio's market beta from β\beta to a target β⋆\beta^\star with index futures: trade N=(β⋆−β)VP/VFN = (\beta^\star - \beta)V_P/V_F contracts, where VPV_P is the portfolio value and VFV_F the value of one futures contract. A negative NN means selling futures; β⋆=0\beta^\star = 0 is a full hedge.

Betting against beta (BAB) M06A

A factor that is long low-beta stocks and short high-beta stocks, each leg scaled to beta one, so the portfolio has zero beta: (rL−rf)/βL−(rH−rf)/βH(r_L - r_f)/\beta_L - (r_H - r_f)/\beta_H. It exploits the empirical flatness of the security market line relative to the CAPM.

Bhavcopy M09AM01M07M08M04AM13A

NSE's end-of-day file of prices, volumes and open interest for every traded contract. The F&O bhavcopy (UDiFF format) has one row per contract with fields such as ClsPric, SttlmPric, OpnIntrst (in units) and TtlTradgVol (in contracts) and NewBrdLotQty (lot size). Bhavcopy prices are not adjusted for corporate actions.

Bid–ask spread M01M05M09AM13A

The difference between the best ask (lowest resting sell price) and the best bid (highest resting buy price); their average is the mid. A trader who buys at the ask and sells at the bid pays the spread on a round trip; microstructure models attribute it to order-processing, inventory and adverse-selection costs.

Binomial tree M08

A discrete model in which the underlying moves up by uu or down by dd each step. Any claim is replicated by Δ=(Vu−Vd)/(S(u−d))\Delta = (V_u - V_d)/(S(u-d)) shares plus cash, giving risk-neutral probability p=(e(r−q)Δt−d)/(u−d)p = (e^{(r-q)\Delta t} - d)/(u-d). The Cox–Ross–Rubinstein tree sets u=eσΔtu = e^{\sigma\sqrt{\Delta t}}, d=1/ud = 1/u, prices American options by backward induction, and converges to Black–Scholes with error O(1/n)O(1/n).

Black-76 M08M09AM10M09

Black's (1976) formula for European options on a futures or forward price FF: c=e−rτ[FN(d1)−KN(d2)]c = e^{-r\tau}[F N(d_1) - K N(d_2)] with d1,2=[ln⁡(F/K)±12σ2τ]/(στ)d_{1,2} = [\ln(F/K) \pm \tfrac12\sigma^2\tau]/(\sigma\sqrt\tau). The course prices Nifty options off the Nifty future and MCX options on futures with it, avoiding a separate dividend or carry estimate.

Black–Scholes model M08M09

The model in which the underlying follows geometric Brownian motion with constant volatility σ\sigma and the rate rr and yield qq are constant. Delta hedging gives the PDE Vt+12σ2S2VSS+(r−q)SVS−rV=0V_t + \tfrac12\sigma^2S^2V_{SS} + (r-q)SV_S - rV = 0, solved by c=Se−qτN(d1)−Ke−rτN(d2)c = Se^{-q\tau}N(d_1) - Ke^{-r\tau}N(d_2), d1,2=[ln⁡(S/K)+(r−q±12σ2)τ]/(στ)d_{1,2} = [\ln(S/K) + (r - q \pm \tfrac12\sigma^2)\tau]/(\sigma\sqrt\tau).

Block deal M04AM06A

A large trade executed in a separate exchange window rather than in the normal order book. Under SEBI's circular of 8 Oct 2025 (effective 7 Dec 2025) the minimum order is ₹25 crore, with a morning window 08:45–09:00 and an afternoon window 14:05–14:20, a ±3% band around a reference price and compulsory delivery.

Bonferroni correction M04M13A

A multiple-testing rule that rejects hypothesis ii only if pi≤α/mp_i \le \alpha/m when mm hypotheses are tested. It controls the family-wise error rate at α\alpha under any dependence, at the cost of power; at α=5%\alpha = 5\% the required ∣t∣|t| rises from 1.96 for one test to about 3.48 for 100.

Bonus issue M01

An issue of aa new fully paid shares for every bb held, capitalised from reserves, with no cash changing hands. The theoretical ex-price is Pc b/(a+b)P_c\,b/(a+b); an index divisor does not change, and a price series must be adjusted by the factor b/(a+b)b/(a+b) before the ex-date.

Book building M06A

The IPO pricing process in which investors bid quantities at prices within a published band and the issue price is set from the resulting demand. In India the book is split by investor category (QIB, non-institutional, retail) with prescribed allocation shares.

Book-to-bill ratio M06A

Order inflow divided by revenue recognised in the period. By the order-book identity (M06A Proposition 6A.21), the order book grows if and only if book-to-bill exceeds 1; it is the leading indicator for capital-goods and defence companies.

Breadth M04A

Measures of how many stocks participate in a market move, such as the number of advancing minus declining stocks, the advance–decline ratio, or the share of stocks above a moving average. In a one-factor model the expected advancing share is 1N∑iΦ(βif/si)\frac1N\sum_i\Phi(\beta_i f/s_i), so breadth largely restates the index move.

Breakeven inflation M11

The difference between a nominal bond yield and the real yield on an inflation-indexed bond of the same maturity, b=i−rrealb = i - r^{\text{real}}. By the Fisher relation it approximates expected inflation plus an inflation risk premium.

Breakeven win rate M04M03

The win rate at which a system with average win WW (in units of the initial risk RR), average loss 1R1R and round-trip cost cc (in RR) has zero expectancy: p∗=(1+c)/(1+W)p^* = (1+c)/(1+W).

Breakout M04M04A

A close (or trade) above the highest high, or below the lowest low, of a look-back window, used as an entry signal. As a hypothesis it says that returns after such a close are higher than unconditional returns; it must be tested against a random-walk null and after costs.

Brier score M13M12

The mean squared error of probability forecasts of binary events, BS=1N∑i(pi−yi)2\mathrm{BS} = \frac1N\sum_i (p_i - y_i)^2, between 0 (perfect) and 1. It is strictly proper, bounded, and decomposes (Murphy) into reliability minus resolution plus uncertainty.

Brownian motion M08M03M04AM13A

A continuous-time process WtW_t with W0=0W_0 = 0, continuous paths and independent Gaussian increments Wt−Ws∼N(0,t−s)W_t - W_s \sim N(0, t-s). Arithmetic Brownian motion with drift models log-wealth in M03 and log-price for barrier (stop and target) problems in M04A; geometric Brownian motion models prices.

BSE M01

India's older national stock exchange (formerly the Bombay Stock Exchange), owner of the Sensex. Its clearing corporation is the Indian Clearing Corporation Ltd (ICCL). BSE's Sensex weekly options expire on Thursdays (since 1 Sep 2025).

Bulk deal M04AM06A

A trade or trades by one client in one stock on one day totalling more than 0.5% of the company's listed shares, executed in the normal market. The exchange publishes the client name, quantity and price after the close; the reason for the trade is not disclosed.

Buyback M06A

A company's repurchase of its own shares, either by a tender offer (shareholders tender shares at a fixed price, accepted pro rata by an acceptance ratio) or through open-market purchases on the exchange over a period. It is EPS-accretive iff the earnings yield at the buyback price exceeds the after-tax return on the cash used, and it transfers value to remaining holders iff the price paid is below intrinsic value per share. India's buyback tax regime changed in Oct 2024 and again from Apr 2026.

C

Calendar spread M07M09M09A

A position long one expiry and short another on the same underlying, in futures (a bet on the change in the far–near price difference, i.e. the carry) or in options (mainly a bet on the term structure of implied volatility and on time decay).

Calibration M13

A forecaster is calibrated if, among all occasions on which she forecasts probability ff, the event occurs with frequency ff: Pr⁡(Y=1∣p=f)=f\Pr(Y = 1 \mid p = f) = f. Calibration is the reliability term of the Murphy decomposition; it is necessary but cheap, since always forecasting the base rate is calibrated.

Call auction M01

A mechanism that collects orders over a period and executes them together at one price, chosen to maximise executable volume min⁡{D(p),S(p)}\min\{D(p), S(p)\}, then to minimise imbalance, then to stay closest to a reference price. NSE and BSE set the open (pre-open session) and, since 3 Aug 2026, the official close (closing auction session) this way.

Call option M08

The right, not the obligation, to buy the underlying at the strike KK on (European) or before (American) expiry. Its payoff at expiry is (ST−K)+(S_T - K)^+; the buyer pays a premium and can lose at most that premium.

CAPM M06M06AM14

The Capital Asset Pricing Model: in equilibrium each asset's expected excess return is proportional to its market beta, μi−rf=βi(μM−rf)\mu_i - r_f = \beta_i(\mu_M - r_f). The course derives it from mean–variance optimisation and uses it to build a cost of equity.

Carry M11M07M10

The return from holding a position if prices do not change. For futures it is the net cost of carry (r−qr - q, or r+u−yr + u - y for commodities) embedded in the basis; for currencies it is the interest differential i−i∗i - i^*, and the carry-trade excess return is (i−i∗)−Δs(i - i^*) - \Delta s.

CASA ratio M06A

Current and savings account deposits as a share of a bank's total deposits. These deposits pay little or no interest, so a high CASA ratio means cheap funding and a higher net interest margin; NBFCs have no CASA.

Cash-and-carry arbitrage M07M10

Buying the underlying with borrowed money and selling it forward, locking in F0−S0e(r−q)TF_0 - S_0e^{(r-q)T}; the reverse cash-and-carry sells the underlying and buys forward. Together they force F0=S0e(r−q)TF_0 = S_0e^{(r-q)T} for investment assets; for consumption commodities only the upper bound F0≤S0e(r+u)TF_0 \le S_0e^{(r+u)T} is enforceable.

CDSL and NSDL M01

India's two securities depositories, Central Depository Services (India) Ltd and National Securities Depository Ltd. They hold securities in dematerialised form and move them between demat accounts on settlement; investors access them through a depository participant.

Charm M08M09

The rate of change of an option's delta with the passage of time, ∂Δ/∂t\partial\Delta/\partial t (equivalently −∂Θ/∂S-\partial\Theta/\partial S up to sign convention), also called delta decay. It matters for overnight and expiry-day hedging, when delta drifts toward 0 or 1 even if spot does not move. Not named in the notes; it is one of the cross terms of the Taylor expansion of option value.

Chow test M13A

An FF-test of whether regression coefficients differ before and after a known break date: F=[(SSRR−SSR1−SSR2)/k]/[(SSR1+SSR2)/(n−2k)]F = [(\mathrm{SSR}_R - \mathrm{SSR}_1 - \mathrm{SSR}_2)/k]/[(\mathrm{SSR}_1 + \mathrm{SSR}_2)/(n-2k)]. Choosing the date from the data invalidates its critical values; use a sup-F test for unknown dates.

Circuit filter (price band) M01M02

A limit on how far a stock's price may move in a day from the previous close; orders outside the band are rejected. Stocks without derivatives have fixed bands of 2%, 5%, 10% or 20%; F&O stocks have dynamic bands (initially 10%) that the exchange can widen in steps.

Clearing corporation M01M07

The central counterparty that becomes buyer to every seller and seller to every buyer through novation, nets obligations, collects margins and guarantees settlement, backed by a settlement guarantee fund. NSE's is NSE Clearing Ltd; BSE's is ICCL.

Closing auction session (CAS) M01

The single-price call auction that sets the official closing price of NSE and BSE stocks, live since 3 Aug 2026 for stocks with derivatives. From 7 Dec 2026 it runs 15:30–15:40 with a random end of order entry between 15:38 and 15:40, followed by a post-close session at the closing price.

Closing price M01M09A

The official end-of-day price of a security. Before Aug 2026 NSE's close was the VWAP of trades between 15:00 and 15:30; since 3 Aug 2026 (F&O stocks) it is set by the closing auction, so NSE and BSE can publish different closes. Derivative expiry settlement uses a separate last-30-minute VWAP.

CNC (cash and carry) M01

A broker product code for delivery-based equity trades: shares bought under CNC are paid for in full and delivered into the demat account at settlement. It is a broker margin category, not an exchange order type.

Coffee Can filter M06

Mukherjea's (Marcellus) screen for consistent compounders: revenue growth of at least 10% and ROCE of at least 15% in every one of the last 10 years (for lenders, loan-book growth and ROE of at least 15%), with the portfolio held untouched for 10 years. It tests every year, not the CAGR.

Coherent risk measure M14

A risk measure ρ\rho on losses satisfying monotonicity, translation invariance (ρ(L+c)=ρ(L)+c\rho(L + c) = \rho(L) + c), positive homogeneity and subadditivity (ρ(L1+L2)≤ρ(L1)+ρ(L2)\rho(L_1 + L_2) \le \rho(L_1) + \rho(L_2)). Expected Shortfall is coherent; Value-at-Risk is not, because it can fail subadditivity.

Cointegration M13AM10

Two or more integrated (unit-root) series are cointegrated if some linear combination β′yt\beta'y_t of them is stationary. The combination is the long-run equilibrium (the spread of a pair), and by the Granger representation theorem deviations from it are corrected through an error-correction model.

Collar M14

A long position hedged with a bought put below the price and a sold call above it, often at near-zero net premium: losses below the put strike and gains above the call strike are given up. M14 · 14.19 compares it with a protective put, a put spread and short futures on a stock portfolio.

Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT) M10M15

A tax on non-agricultural commodity derivatives traded on an exchange, levied under Chapter VII of the Finance Act, 2013: 0.01% of the sale value of futures and 0.05% of the premium on the sale of options (as of Nov 2026). It is the commodity counterpart of STT; agricultural commodities are exempt.

Contango M10M07

A futures curve whose prices rise with maturity, with deferred futures above near futures and spot; in the cost-of-carry relation interest plus storage exceed the convenience yield. M07 states it for one contract as F>SF > S (when r>qr > q); M10 by the curve slope, Ft(T)F_t(T) increasing in TT. A long who rolls in contango pays a negative roll yield.

Contract note M01

The legal confirmation a broker issues for each day's executed trades, listing prices, quantities and every charge (brokerage, STT, exchange charges, SEBI fee, stamp duty, GST). It shows the statutory costs of a trade but not the market impact.

Convenience yield M07M10

The implicit benefit, expressed as a continuous yield yy, of holding the physical commodity rather than a futures contract: the ability to keep production running or meet unexpected demand. It enters F0=S0e(r+u−y)TF_0 = S_0e^{(r+u-y)T}, is implied by y=r+u−ln⁡(F/S)/Ty = r + u - \ln(F/S)/T, and is high when inventories are low.

Convergence M07

The property that a futures price approaches the spot price as expiry nears, so the basis goes to zero at expiry (bT=0b_T = 0), enforced by delivery or cash settlement against the spot. Convergence is only as good as the agreement between the futures settlement price and the cash price used.

Convexity (bond) M11

The second-order sensitivity of a bond's price to its yield, C=P−1 ∂2P/∂y2C = P^{-1}\,\partial^2P/\partial y^2. With modified duration it gives ΔP/P≈−DmodΔy+12C Δy2\Delta P/P \approx -D_{\text{mod}}\Delta y + \tfrac12 C\,\Delta y^2; positive convexity means prices rise more for a yield fall than they fall for an equal yield rise.

Cost drag M05M04

The reduction in a strategy's return, or Sharpe ratio, caused by trading costs: net mean μn=μg−c⋅TO\mu_n = \mu_g - c\cdot\mathrm{TO} for cost cc per unit of turnover TO\mathrm{TO}. For NN trades a year the Sharpe drag is Nc/σt\sqrt N c/\sigma_t, which is why short holding periods need much larger per-trade edges.

Cost of carry M07M10

The net cost of holding the underlying until the delivery date: financing at rr, plus storage uu, minus income qq or convenience yield yy. The cost-of-carry relation F0=S0e(r+u−y)TF_0 = S_0e^{(r+u-y)T} (with F0=S0e(r−q)TF_0 = S_0e^{(r-q)T} for financial assets) links futures to spot. Indian brokers also quote "cost of carry" as the annualised basis.

Cost of equity M06M06A

The return shareholders require, used to discount equity cash flows. The course builds an INR cost of equity as ke=(yG-sec−default spread)+β(ERPmature+CRP)k_e = (y_{\text{G-sec}} - \text{default spread}) + \beta(\text{ERP}_{\text{mature}} + \text{CRP}) from Damodaran's India inputs (July 2026), or reads it from the Gordon model as D1/P0+gD_1/P_0 + g.

Covered call M09

A long position in the underlying combined with a short call. It earns the call premium and gives up upside above the strike; by put–call parity its payoff equals that of a short put plus cash, so it is a short-volatility position.

Covered interest parity (CIP) M11

The no-arbitrage relation between spot and forward exchange rates and the two interest rates: F=S(1+rdT)/(1+rfT)F = S(1 + r_dT)/(1 + r_fT). Borrowing in one currency, converting, lending in the other and hedging with a forward must earn nothing; bid–ask spreads turn the equality into a band.

CPI M11M10M13

The Consumer Price Index, a measure of the price of a fixed basket of consumer goods and services; its growth rate is headline retail inflation. In India it is the RBI's target variable: 4% with a band of 2–6% for Apr 2026–Mar 2031 (notified 25 Mar 2026, per the notes).

Crack spread M10M06A

The gross margin of refining crude oil into products, measured from futures or spot prices. The 3-2-1 crack per barrel of crude is (2Pgasoline+Pdistillate−3Pcrude)/3(2P_{\text{gasoline}} + P_{\text{distillate}} - 3P_{\text{crude}})/3; refiners' margins (GRM) and oil marketing companies' earnings move with it.

Creation unit M06B

The block of ETF units (often tens of thousands) that the AMC issues or redeems, usually in exchange for the index basket plus a cash component. Only market makers and large investors deal in it; others trade units on the exchange.

Credit cost M06AM06

A bank's provisions for loan losses over average assets (or loans) for a period. It is the most cyclical line in the bank ROA tree, ROA=(NIM+fees−opex−credit cost)(1−τ)\text{ROA} = (\text{NIM} + \text{fees} - \text{opex} - \text{credit cost})(1-\tau).

Crisis correlation M14M02

The observed rise of correlations between assets in high-volatility periods, which removes diversification when it is most needed. Part of the rise is a conditioning artefact: selecting on high market variance mechanically raises measured correlation (the Forbes–Rigobon bias), so a genuine breakdown must be separated from it.

CRR (cash reserve ratio) M11

The share of deposits Indian banks must hold as unremunerated balances with the RBI: 3.00% as of 6 Nov 2026. A CRR cut releases reserves and acts like a rate cut at the short end without changing the repo rate. (In M08, CRR also abbreviates the Cox–Ross–Rubinstein binomial tree.)

Cumulative abnormal return (CAR) M12M06A

The sum of a security's abnormal returns over an event window, CARi=∑τ∈windowARiτCAR_i = \sum_{\tau \in \text{window}} AR_{i\tau}. Its variance includes estimation error; the standardised CAR is tt-distributed under the null, and cross-sectional tests (J1, Patell, BMP) aggregate CARs across events.

Current account deficit (CAD) M11M10

The excess of a country's payments for imports of goods and services, net income and transfers over its receipts, which must be financed by capital inflows or reserves. India's CAD widens roughly one-for-one with the oil import bill; a CAD financed by portfolio flows makes the rupee vulnerable.

CUSUM test M13A

A test for parameter instability based on the cumulative sum of standardised recursive residuals, Wr=σ^−1∑t≤rwtW_r = \hat\sigma^{-1}\sum_{t \le r} w_t; the null of stability is rejected when the path crosses bounds that widen linearly with rr. It detects breaks without specifying their date.

Cut-off time and applicable NAV M06B

The time (3 pm for most schemes) by which an application and, for purchases, the money must reach the scheme for that day's NAV to apply; later transactions get a later NAV. Forward pricing of this kind prevents investors from trading on known price moves (M06B · 6B.2).

D

Dalio's growth–inflation quadrants M11

A classification of macro regimes by the surprise in growth (rising or falling) and inflation (rising or falling): goldilocks, reflation, deflationary bust and stagflation, each with assets that tend to do well. Bridgewater's All Weather portfolio holds risk-balanced assets for all four; the mapping failed in 2022 and March 2026 when stocks and bonds fell together.

Data snooping M04

Finding apparently significant results by searching many rules, parameters or datasets and reporting the best, without accounting for the search. The relevant family is every rule that could have been tried; White's Reality Check, the deflated Sharpe ratio and PBO are the corrections.

DCF (discounted cash flow) M06

Valuation as the present value of expected future cash flows: free cash flow to the firm discounted at WACC (then subtract net debt), or free cash flow to equity at the cost of equity. A two-stage DCF projects explicit cash flows for NN years and adds a Gordon terminal value FN(1+gT)/(W−gT)F_N(1+g_T)/(W - g_T).

Deflated Sharpe ratio (DSR) M04M14

The probabilistic Sharpe ratio evaluated against the Sharpe ratio expected from the best of NN skill-less trials, DSR=PSR(S0)\mathrm{DSR} = \mathrm{PSR}(S_0) with S0≈V[(1−γ)Φ−1(1−1/N)+γΦ−1(1−1/(Ne))]S_0 \approx \sqrt V[(1-\gamma)\Phi^{-1}(1 - 1/N) + \gamma\Phi^{-1}(1 - 1/(Ne))]. It is the probability that the selected strategy's true Sharpe exceeds what selection alone would produce.

Delisting M06A

Removal of a company's shares from an exchange. A voluntary delisting in India runs by reverse book building: public shareholders bid the prices at which they will sell, and the discovered price is where the acquirer's holding with shares tendered at or below it reaches 90% (SEBI Delisting Regulations 2021, as amended 25 Sep 2024).

Delivery percentage M04A

For a stock and day, deliverable quantity divided by traded quantity, from NSE's full bhavcopy. Shares bought and sold by the same client on the same day net out and are not delivered, so it is mechanically higher where intraday trading is light; compare a stock with its own history.

Delta M08M09M09AM14

The sensitivity of an option's value to the underlying price, Δ=∂V/∂S\Delta = \partial V/\partial S: e−qτN(d1)e^{-q\tau}N(d_1) for a call and −e−qτN(−d1)-e^{-q\tau}N(-d_1) for a put under Black–Scholes. It is the hedge ratio in shares, and the position delta is the sum of signed leg deltas.

Delta hedging M09M08M09A

Holding −Δ-\Delta units of the underlying against an option so the combined position is insensitive to small price moves, rebalanced as delta changes. A delta-hedged long option earns 12ΓS2(σr2−σi2) dt\tfrac12\Gamma S^2(\sigma_r^2 - \sigma_i^2)\,dt: it profits iff realised volatility exceeds the implied volatility it was bought at.

Delta–gamma approximation M14M09A

The second-order Taylor expansion of a book's value for scenario P&L: ΔV≈∑iΔiΔSi+12∑ijΓijΔSiΔSj+∑kVkΔσk+ΘΔt\Delta V \approx \sum_i\Delta_i\Delta S_i + \tfrac12\sum_{ij}\Gamma_{ij}\Delta S_i\Delta S_j + \sum_k\mathcal V_k\Delta\sigma_k + \Theta\Delta t. It understates losses on short options when the move goes toward the strike and overstates them far beyond it; full revaluation avoids both errors.

Demat account M01

An account in which securities are held in dematerialised (electronic) form with a depository (NSDL or CDSL), opened through a depository participant. Shares bought on the exchange are credited to it at settlement (T+1).

Demerger M06A

The split of a listed company into two or more listed companies, with shareholders receiving qq shares of the resulting company for each parent share. Value conservation gives Pcum=Pex+qPchildP_{\text{cum}} = P_{\text{ex}} + qP_{\text{child}}; the tax cost basis is apportioned by book value transferred, and the parent's ex-price is found in a special pre-open session.

Depository participant (DP) M01

An agent of a depository (NSDL or CDSL), usually the broker, through which an investor opens and operates a demat account. DPs charge a fee per scrip per sell day for debiting shares.

DII M04AM11M09A

Domestic institutional investors: Indian mutual funds, insurers, pension funds, banks and similar institutions. NSE publishes provisional daily DII (and FII) net buying in the cash market, and DII is one of the four categories in the participant-wise OI file.

Direct plan and regular plan M06BM00

Two plans of the same scheme with the same portfolio. The regular plan is sold through a distributor and carries a higher expense ratio, the difference paying the distributor's trail commission; the direct plan has no commission. A gap of 0.6 point a year costs about 7% of a 20-year SIP's corpus (M06B Worked example 6B.3).

Disposition effect M14M04A

The tendency to sell winners too early and hold losers too long, measured by Odean's proportion of gains realised exceeding the proportion of losses realised. Prospect theory's value function, concave for gains and convex for losses relative to the purchase price, generates it.

Dividend M01M07

A cash payment per share to holders on the record date. The theoretical ex-dividend price is Pc−dP_c - d, and the dividend adjustment factor for a price series is 1−d/Pc1 - d/P_c. Since 1 Apr 2020 Indian dividends are taxed in the investor's hands at slab rates.

Dividend yield M07M08M01M06

Annual dividends per share divided by the share price. For an index it is the continuous yield qq in the forward price F0=S0e(r−q)TF_0 = S_0e^{(r-q)T} and option formulas; in the Gordon model the dividend yield plus growth equals the cost of equity.

Divisor (index) M01

The number DD that converts free-float market capitalisation into an index level, I=M/DI = M/D. When constituents, share counts or free-float factors change, D′=D⋅M′/MD' = D\cdot M'/M keeps the index continuous; splits and bonuses need no change.

Dollar smile M11

Stephen Jen's heuristic that the US dollar strengthens in two states, global risk-off (safe-haven demand and dollar funding stress) and US outperformance (higher US rates and growth), and weakens in between, during synchronised global growth.

Drawdown M03M14

The fall of wealth (or log-wealth) from its running maximum: Dt=Mt−XtD_t = M_t - X_t with Mt=sup⁡u≤tXuM_t = \sup_{u \le t}X_u. For Brownian log-wealth with drift mm and volatility ss, the stationary drawdown exceeds dd with probability e−2md/s2e^{-2md/s^2}.

Duration (Macaulay) M11

The present-value-weighted average time to a bond's cash flows, Dmac=∑ktkPVk/PD_{\text{mac}} = \sum_k t_k PV_k/P, in years. It measures interest-rate sensitivity together with modified duration. (In M03, "duration" also denotes the expected length of a gambler's-ruin game.)

DvP (delivery versus payment) M01

A settlement design in which securities move if and only if the corresponding cash moves. Clearing corporations with depositories settle on a DvP basis; the absence of DvP in government-securities settlement made the 1992 securities scam possible.

DXY M11M10

ICE's US Dollar Index, a geometric average of six exchange rates against the dollar with weights EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%, CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2% and CHF 3.6% (base March 1973 = 100). It contains neither the yuan nor the rupee.

E

EBITDA and EV/EBITDA M06A

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, a proxy for operating cash profit before capital spending. EV/EBITDA, enterprise value over EBITDA, is a capital-structure-neutral multiple used for cyclicals such as metals and cement, ideally on mid-cycle (normalised) EBITDA.

Efficient market hypothesis M13M04

The hypothesis that prices fully reflect available information, in weak (past prices), semi-strong (public information) or strong (all information) form. Formally, excess returns are a martingale difference sequence, so no Ft\mathcal F_t-measurable predictor is correlated with the next excess return; it constrains mean forecasts far more than variance forecasts.

Embargo M13M04

In purged cross-validation, dropping a further ⌈ϵN⌉\lceil\epsilon N\rceil observations immediately after each test block from the training set (typically ϵ=0.01\epsilon = 0.01), because their features overlap the test period through trailing windows and serial correlation.

Engle–Granger test M13AM10

A two-step cointegration test: regress one series on the other by OLS, then apply a Dickey–Fuller test to the residuals. Because the residuals are fitted, the critical values are more negative than DF's: about −3.34-3.34 at 5% for a pair with a constant, against −2.86-2.86.

Enterprise value M06M06A

The value of a firm's operating business to all capital providers: equity market value plus net debt (debt minus excess cash), with adjustments for minorities and other claims. DCF on FCFF at WACC estimates it directly.

Equal risk contribution (ERC) M14

A portfolio in which every asset contributes the same share of total volatility, RCi=wi(Σw)i/σRC_i = w_i(\Sigma w)_i/\sigma equal for all ii. It is found by the convex problem min⁡12y′Σy−∑ibiln⁡yi\min \tfrac12 y'\Sigma y - \sum_i b_i\ln y_i, w=y/1′yw = y/\mathbf 1'y, and equals inverse-volatility weighting iff the correlation matrix has equal row sums.

Equity duration M11

The interest-rate sensitivity of a stock valued by the Gordon model: modified duration 1/(r−g)=P/D11/(r - g) = P/D_1. Low-dividend-yield growth stocks have long durations, which is why they, like long bonds, fall when real yields rise.

Equity risk premium (ERP) M06

The expected return of the equity market in excess of the risk-free rate. The course uses Damodaran's July 2026 inputs for India: a mature-market ERP plus a country risk premium of 2.72%, total 6.92%.

Equity-oriented fund M06BM00

For Indian tax, a fund with at least 65% in listed domestic equity (hedged arbitrage positions count). Gains are taxed like listed shares: 20% if held 12 months or less, 12.5% above ₹1.25 lakh a year otherwise (rates as of 2026-27).

Error-correction model (ECM) M13A

A model in which changes in cointegrated series respond to the lagged deviation from equilibrium: Δyt=αβ′yt−1+∑iΓiΔyt−i+εt\Delta y_t = \alpha\beta'y_{t-1} + \sum_i\Gamma_i\Delta y_{t-i} + \varepsilon_t (the VECM). The loadings α\alpha give the speed at which each series corrects the spread.

ETF (exchange-traded fund) M06BM00M10

A fund whose units trade on the exchange; new units are created and redeemed with the AMC only in creation units, by market makers or by investors dealing above ₹25 cr. Arbitrage between the two markets keeps the price near iNAV within a cost band (M06B Proposition 6B.9.1).

ETF premium and discount M06B

The percentage by which an ETF's traded price exceeds (premium) or falls short of (discount) its iNAV. Without frictions it is bounded by the cost of creating or redeeming units, I(1−Cr)≤P≤I(1+Cc)I(1 - C_r) \le P \le I(1 + C_c) (M06B (6B.26)).

Event study M12M06A

A method that measures the price effect of an event by estimating normal returns on an estimation window, computing abnormal returns over an event window, aggregating them into CARs across firms, and testing them with statistics (J1, Patell, BMP) whose size depends on clustering and variance changes.

Event variance M09AM06A

The extra variance the option market prices for a known event (results, policy decision), extracted from two expiries straddling it: m2=(σ12−σ22)T1T2/(T2−T1)m^2 = (\sigma_1^2 - \sigma_2^2)T_1T_2/(T_2 - T_1) when both expire after the event. The implied expected absolute event move is m2/πm\sqrt{2/\pi}.

Ex-date M01M06A

The first trading day on which a share trades without the right to a declared dividend, bonus, split or rights entitlement. Under T+1, brokers state that the ex-date equals the record date, so buying on the ex-date does not give the benefit; check NSE's corporate-actions page for each case.

Exit load M06BM00

A charge on units redeemed within a stated period, credited to the scheme (not the AMC) and capped at 3% of NAV. It transfers value from short-term leavers to the remaining holders.

Expectancy M03M04AM14

The expected profit per trade in R-multiples, E=pWˉ−(1−p)LˉE = p\bar W - (1-p)\bar L, with win rate pp, average win Wˉ\bar W and average loss Lˉ\bar L. For a driftless price no stop, target or trailing rule changes it from zero; with drift μ\mu it equals μ\mu times expected exposure time.

Expected shortfall (ES) M02M14

The average loss given that the loss exceeds VaR: ESc=−E[r∣r≤q1−c(r)]\mathrm{ES}_c = -E[r \mid r \le q_{1-c}(r)] (also called CVaR). For a normal return it is −μ+σφ(Φ−1(c))/(1−c)-\mu + \sigma\varphi(\Phi^{-1}(c))/(1-c); it is coherent, always at least VaR, and harder to backtest because it is not elicitable.

Expiry day M09AM09M08M07

The last trading day of a derivative contract, when it is settled. On expiry day ATM gamma and theta peak, an extra 2% ELM applies to short index options (since 20 Nov 2024), calendar-spread margin benefit is removed (since 1 Feb 2025), and from 7 Dec 2026 expiring index contracts stop trading at 15:30.

Extreme loss margin (ELM) M07M09AM09M14

A margin collected over and above the VaR or SPAN margin to cover losses beyond the modelled scenarios, charged as a percentage of notional; for derivatives it is also called exposure margin (about 2% of notional for index derivatives is the commonly quoted figure, not re-verified in the notes). An additional 2% ELM applies to short index options on their expiry day since 20 Nov 2024.

F

F&O ban period (MWPL) M04A

A period during which a stock's derivatives can only be traded to reduce positions, triggered when market-wide futures-equivalent open interest exceeds 95% of the market-wide position limit (MWPL). The MWPL formula and futures-equivalent basis were revised from 1 Oct 2025 (reported; verify the current circular). The exchange publishes the ban list each evening.

Face value M01M11

The nominal value per share stated in a company's charter (e.g. ₹1, ₹2, ₹10). It matters for splits (which reduce it) and for dividends declared as a percentage of it, not for valuation. For a bond it is the principal repaid at maturity.

Factor investing M06AM04

Holding long–short portfolios sorted on stock characteristics (value, size, momentum, quality, low volatility or beta) to earn the premia associated with them. A factor return must be built with correct timing (characteristics known before the holding period), and its premium tested for significance, crowding and crash risk.

False discovery rate (FDR) M04

The expected proportion of false rejections among all rejections in a family of tests. Controlling it (Benjamini–Hochberg) tolerates some false discoveries in exchange for power, unlike family-wise error control.

Family-wise error rate (FWER) M04M14

The probability of at least one false rejection among mm tests; with kk independent tests at level α\alpha it is 1−(1−α)k1 - (1-\alpha)^k. Bonferroni and Holm control it at α\alpha under any dependence.

FCFE (free cash flow to equity) M06

The cash available to shareholders after operating needs, reinvestment and net payments to debt holders: FCFF minus after-tax interest plus net borrowing. Discounted at the cost of equity, it values the equity directly; with clean surplus it equals dividends net of new equity.

FCFF (free cash flow to the firm) M06

The cash generated by operations after taxes and reinvestment, available to all capital providers: FCFF=NOPAT+D&A−capex−ΔNWC=NOPAT−ΔNOA\text{FCFF} = \text{NOPAT} + \text{D\&A} - \text{capex} - \Delta\text{NWC} = \text{NOPAT} - \Delta\text{NOA}. It equals the cash paid to debt and equity holders, and is discounted at WACC.

FII / FPI M11M04AM09A

Foreign institutional investors, now registered by SEBI as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). Their daily net cash-market flows, published provisionally by NSE, and their positions in the participant-wise OI file are watched as drivers of the Nifty and the rupee; a short index future held by an FII is often a hedge of its cash holdings.

Fisher equation M11

The relation between nominal and real interest rates and expected inflation: (1+i)=(1+r)(1+πe)(1 + i) = (1 + r)(1 + \pi^e), approximately i≈r+πei \approx r + \pi^e.

Forbes–Rigobon bias M02M14

The upward bias in correlation measured in high-volatility periods: if the market's variance rises by a factor 1+δ1 + \delta with an unchanged linear relation, conditional correlation becomes ρ∗=ρ(1+δ)/(1+δρ2)>ρ\rho^* = \rho\sqrt{(1+\delta)/(1 + \delta\rho^2)} > \rho. "Contagion" must be measured after removing it.

Forecast journal M13M12

A dated record of one's probabilistic forecasts, each with the exact question, resolution criterion and date, probability, base rate used, rationale and later updates, scored with Brier and log scores when resolved. Detecting a skill difference dd against a baseline needs roughly (1.96 s/d)2(1.96\,s/d)^2 questions.

Forex reserves M11

The foreign-currency assets, gold, SDRs and IMF reserve position held by the central bank. The RBI uses them to intervene in the rupee market; selling dollars absorbs rupees and tightens domestic liquidity unless sterilised.

Forward contract M07M11

An agreement to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price KK on a future date, settled once at maturity. The no-arbitrage forward price is F0=S0e(r−q)TF_0 = S_0e^{(r-q)T} (or (S0−I)erT(S_0 - I)e^{rT} with discrete dividends); an existing long forward is worth (Ft−K)e−rτ(F_t - K)e^{-r\tau}.

Forward premium puzzle M11

The empirical failure of uncovered interest parity: in the Fama regression Δst+1=a+b(ft−st)+ε\Delta s_{t+1} = a + b(f_t - s_t) + \varepsilon, the slope bb is typically below 1 and often negative, so high-interest currencies tend not to depreciate enough to offset the rate differential, and carry trades earn positive average returns with crash risk.

Forward variance M09A

The implied variance for the period between two expiries, σ1,22=(σ22τ2−σ12τ1)/(τ2−τ1)\sigma_{1,2}^2 = (\sigma_2^2\tau_2 - \sigma_1^2\tau_1)/(\tau_2 - \tau_1), from total implied variances wi=σi2τiw_i = \sigma_i^2\tau_i. Absence of calendar arbitrage requires it to be non-negative.

Fractional Kelly M03M09M14

Betting a fraction cc of the Kelly fraction, f=cf∗f = cf^*. It achieves about 2c−c22c - c^2 of the maximal excess growth with cc times the volatility, and the probability of ever falling to a fraction xx of initial wealth is x2/c−1x^{2/c-1}; half Kelly gives 75% of the growth with half the volatility.

Free float M01

The fraction of a company's shares available to ordinary investors, excluding promoter holdings, government strategic stakes and locked-in shares; NSE expresses it as the investible weight factor (IWF). Nifty 50 weights are by free-float market capitalisation ∑iPiNifi\sum_i P_iN_if_i.

Fund of funds (FoF) M06B

A scheme that invests in other mutual fund schemes or ETFs, domestic or foreign. Its expense cap includes the underlying schemes' weighted expense ratio. Gold and silver FoFs hold the AMC's own ETF; international FoFs are subject to the overseas investment limits.

Futures contract M07M10

An exchange-traded forward with standardised terms, guaranteed by a clearing corporation and marked to market daily so that gains and losses are paid each day. With deterministic interest rates futures and forward prices are equal; with stochastic rates the futures price is EQ[ST]\mathbb E^{\mathbb Q}[S_T].

G

G-sec M11M06M14

A Government of India dated security (bond), issued through RBI auctions and the benchmark for INR risk-free yields. The 10-year G-sec yield, less a default spread, is the starting point of the course's INR cost of equity.

Gambler's ruin M03M04A

The probability that a random walk with up-probability pp and down-probability qq, starting at aa, hits 0 before NN: Pa=(ρa−ρN)/(1−ρN)P_a = (\rho^a - \rho^N)/(1 - \rho^N) with ρ=q/p\rho = q/p. With N=∞N = \infty and p>qp > q it is ρa\rho^a; with fixed-fractional betting ruin is replaced by bounded losses, P(ever≤xW0)≤xθP(\text{ever} \le xW_0) \le x^\theta.

Gamma M08M09M09A

The rate of change of delta with the underlying, Γ=∂2V/∂S2=e−qτφ(d1)/(Sστ)\Gamma = \partial^2V/\partial S^2 = e^{-q\tau}\varphi(d_1)/(S\sigma\sqrt\tau) under Black–Scholes. Long options are long gamma; the theta–gamma identity ties gamma gains to time decay, and ATM gamma grows like τ−1/2\tau^{-1/2} toward expiry.

Gap M04AM03

The difference between a day's open and the previous close, gt=ln⁡(Ot/Ct−1)g_t = \ln(O_t/C_{t-1}); a full gap up has Ot>Ht−1O_t > H_{t-1}. An up-gap is filled if the day's low reaches Ct−1C_{t-1}. Under a random walk a gap of size gg fills with probability 2Φ(−∣g∣/σin)2\Phi(-|g|/\sigma_{in}), so "gaps get filled" is largely noise.

GARCH(1,1) M13M02M14

A model of conditional variance σt2=ω+αεt−12+βσt−12\sigma_t^2 = \omega + \alpha\varepsilon_{t-1}^2 + \beta\sigma_{t-1}^2. It is covariance-stationary iff α+β<1\alpha + \beta < 1, with unconditional variance ω/(1−α−β)\omega/(1-\alpha-\beta); forecasts revert to it geometrically at rate α+β\alpha + \beta, and it reproduces volatility clustering and excess kurtosis.

GDP M11

Gross domestic product, the value of final goods and services produced in an economy in a period. Its nominal growth gng_n sets, against the interest rate ii, whether debt ratios fall or compound: dt+1=dt(1+i)/(1+gn)−pbtd_{t+1} = d_t(1+i)/(1+g_n) - pb_t.

Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) M08M02M09

The price model dS=μS dt+σS dWdS = \mu S\,dt + \sigma S\,dW, solved by ST=S0e(μ−σ2/2)T+σWTS_T = S_0e^{(\mu - \sigma^2/2)T + \sigma W_T}. STS_T is lognormal with mean S0eμTS_0e^{\mu T} and median S0e(μ−σ2/2)TS_0e^{(\mu-\sigma^2/2)T}; it is the Black–Scholes model of the underlying.

Geopolitical risk (GPR) index M12M10

Caldara and Iacoviello's (2022) index of the share of articles in major newspapers that discuss geopolitical threats or acts, scaled so the 1985–2019 average is 100. Sub-indices separate threats (war, nuclear, terror threats, build-ups) from acts (war onset, escalation, terror acts).

Glosten–Milgrom model M05M01

A sequential-trade model in which a competitive market maker quotes a=E[V∣buy]a = E[V \mid \text{buy}] and b=E[V∣sell]b = E[V \mid \text{sell}], updated by Bayes' rule. The spread exists because some traders are informed: it equals the market maker's expected loss to them, and prices converge to the true value as trades reveal information.

GMP (grey market premium) M06A

The premium over the issue price at which IPO shares are informally quoted before listing in an unregulated grey market. It has no legal standing or settlement guarantee and is thin and easily manipulated; the course does not treat it as evidence.

GNPA (gross NPA ratio) M06AM06

Gross non-performing assets as a share of gross loans. A loan is non-performing when interest or principal has been overdue beyond the RBI's regulatory threshold. With provision coverage PCR, the net NPA ratio is GNPA(1−PCR)/(1−GNPA⋅PCR)\text{GNPA}(1 - \text{PCR})/(1 - \text{GNPA}\cdot\text{PCR}).

Gold import parity M10M13A

The landed INR price of gold implied by the international price: P10g=(Poz+q)/31.1034768×10×X×(1+d)P_{10g} = (P_{oz} + q)/31.1034768 \times 10 \times X \times (1+d), with XX the USDINR rate, qq a premium or discount and dd basic customs duty plus AIDC; GST of 3% is added at retail. It lets one reproduce MCX gold prices and decompose rupee gold returns into gold, currency and duty parts.

Gold/silver ratio M10M13A

The price of gold divided by the price of silver per ounce. It is often traded as mean-reverting, but no arbitrage anchors it; a test needs ADF critical values, a half-life with honest confidence intervals and attention to small-sample bias.

Gordon growth model M06M11M06A

The value of a cash flow growing at constant rate gg forever, discounted at r>gr > g: V=c1/(r−g)V = c_1/(r - g). For equity, P0=D1/(ke−g)P_0 = D_1/(k_e - g), so ke=D1/P0+gk_e = D_1/P_0 + g; it gives the terminal value in a DCF, justified multiples, and an equity duration of 1/(r−g)1/(r-g).

Greeks M08M09M09AM14

The partial derivatives of an option's value with respect to its inputs: delta and gamma (underlying), vega (volatility), theta (time) and rho (interest rate), plus higher-order ones such as vanna, vomma and charm. The course quotes vega per 1.00 of volatility and theta per year unless it says "per vol point" or "per day".

Grossman–Stiglitz paradox M13M14

The argument that prices cannot be perfectly informative: if they were, nobody would pay to gather information, and then prices could not reflect it. In equilibrium prices are noisy enough that informed traders just recover the cost of their information.

GTT (good till triggered) M01

A broker-side conditional order that waits on the broker's server, sometimes for up to a year, and sends a limit order to the exchange when its trigger price is hit. The exchange does not see it until then, so it has no queue position.

H

Haircut M14

The percentage deducted from the market value of a security pledged as collateral to compute its collateral value. Indian clearing corporations set haircuts aligned with each security's VaR margin rate and publish them daily; brokers may apply larger ones.

Half-life M13AM10M13

The expected time for a deviation from the mean to halve. For an AR(1) with coefficient φ\varphi it is −ln⁡2/ln⁡φ-\ln 2/\ln\varphi periods; for an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with speed κ\kappa it is ln⁡2/κ\ln 2/\kappa; for a GARCH variance forecast it is ln⁡0.5/ln⁡(α+β)\ln 0.5/\ln(\alpha + \beta). Estimates from short samples are biased and imprecise.

Hamilton filter M13

The recursive filter for a Markov regime-switching model (parameters depend on a hidden state following a Markov chain; state jj lasts 1/(1−pjj)1/(1 - p_{jj}) periods on average) that updates the probabilities of each regime: ξt∣t∝ξt∣t−1⊙f(yt)\xi_{t\mid t} \propto \xi_{t\mid t-1}\odot f(y_t), ξt+1∣t=P′ξt∣t\xi_{t+1\mid t} = P'\xi_{t\mid t}, and yields the likelihood. Filtered probabilities use only past data; smoothed (Kim) probabilities use the whole sample and are look-ahead in a backtest.

Heavy tails M02M03

Tails of a return distribution that decay more slowly than the normal's, typically like a power law P(∣X∣>x)∼Cx−αP(|X| > x) \sim Cx^{-\alpha}. Moments of order p≥αp \ge \alpha are infinite; daily index returns have a tail index near 3, so sample kurtosis is unreliable.

Hedge effectiveness M07

The share of the spot position's variance removed by the minimum-variance hedge, equal to ρ2\rho^2, the squared correlation between spot and futures price changes.

Hedge ratio (minimum-variance) M07M13A

The number of futures per unit of spot exposure that minimises the variance of the hedged position, h∗=ρσS/σF=Cov⁡(ΔS,ΔF)/Var⁡(ΔF)h^* = \rho\sigma_S/\sigma_F = \operatorname{Cov}(\Delta S, \Delta F)/\operatorname{Var}(\Delta F); the number of contracts is N∗=h∗QA/QFN^* = h^*Q_A/Q_F. In pairs trading the hedge ratio is the cointegrating coefficient, estimated by OLS, TLS or a Kalman filter.

Hill estimator M02

The maximum-likelihood estimator of the tail index α\alpha of a Pareto-type tail from the kk largest observations: α^k=[1k∑i≤kln⁡X(i)−ln⁡X(k+1)]−1\hat\alpha_k = [\frac1k\sum_{i \le k}\ln X_{(i)} - \ln X_{(k+1)}]^{-1}, with standard error about α/k\alpha/\sqrt k. The choice of kk trades variance against bias (Hill plot).

Holm procedure M04

A step-down multiple-testing rule: sort pp-values and reject while p(k)≤α/(m−k+1)p_{(k)} \le \alpha/(m - k + 1), stopping at the first failure. It controls the family-wise error rate at α\alpha and is uniformly more powerful than Bonferroni.

Hotelling rule M10

The result that, in competitive equilibrium, the net price of an exhaustible resource rises at the rate of interest, pt−c=(p0−c)ertp_t - c = (p_0 - c)e^{rt}, so that owners are indifferent between extracting now and later. Real oil prices have not followed it.

I

Iceberg order M01

An order with a disclosed quantity: only part of the order is displayed in the book and the rest is hidden, refreshing after the visible part fills. It reduces information leakage at the cost of queue priority for the hidden part.

IDCW (income distribution cum capital withdrawal) M06B

A scheme option that pays out part of the NAV from time to time; called the dividend option before 2021. The payout can include the investor's own capital and is taxed as income at slab rates; the growth option defers tax to redemption at capital-gains rates.

Implementation shortfall M05

The difference between the value of a paper portfolio traded at the decision price and the realised portfolio, decomposed into delay cost, execution (impact) cost, opportunity cost of unfilled quantity, and fees. It is the benchmark that Almgren–Chriss optimises.

Implied borrow fee M14

The stock-borrow fee at which shorting through SLB and shorting through a single-stock future cost the same: bimp=r−q−ln⁡(F/S)/Tb_{\text{imp}} = r - q - \ln(F/S)/T. A future trading well below carry value signals expensive borrowing and crowded shorts.

Implied volatility (IV) M08M09M09A

The volatility that, put into Black–Scholes or Black-76, reproduces an option's market price. It exists and is unique because the price is strictly increasing in σ\sigma; it depends on the price used (LTP or mid), the forward and the time convention, and is computed by Newton's method from the Manaster–Koehler start with a Brent fallback.

In the money (ITM) M08M09A

An option with positive intrinsic value: a call with S>KS > K, a put with S<KS < K (desks often compare with the forward). ITM stock options on NSE are exercised automatically at expiry and physically settled.

iNAV (indicative NAV) M06BM00

An ETF's net asset value per unit computed during the trading day from live prices of its basket. It is the benchmark against which an ETF's traded price shows a premium or discount.

Index fund M06BM00M06

An open-ended scheme that holds an index's securities in index weights (at least 95% of assets) and is bought and redeemed at NAV. It lags the index by its tracking difference (M06B · 6B.8).

Index futures M07M04AM09A

Cash-settled futures on a stock index such as the Nifty 50 or Bank Nifty. Their fair price is Se(r−q)TS e^{(r-q)T}; they are the standard instrument for beta hedging and for a short index view, and futures plus cash replicate the total-return index.

India VIX M09M09AM02M12

NSE's volatility index: the square root of the 30-calendar-day variance-swap rate implied by near- and next-month Nifty OTM option quotes, using the VIX methodology adapted from CBOE, with the relevant-tenor NSE MIBOR as the rate. It is quoted in annualised percentage points and is an implied, not a realised, volatility.

Information ratio M06B

Annualised active return divided by tracking error: the reward per unit of active risk (M06B (6B.19)).

Initial margin M07M14

The collateral a trader must post before opening a futures or short-option position, sized to cover a large one-day loss (SPAN plus exposure margin for Indian derivatives). In India the full initial margin must be maintained at all times, including at intraday peak-margin snapshots.

IOC (immediate or cancel) M01

An order validity that fills whatever can be filled on arrival and cancels the rest; it never rests in the book. It is not accepted in NSE's pre-open session.

IPO M06A

An initial public offering: the first sale of a company's shares to the public, with listing on an exchange. An Indian IPO combines a fresh issue (new shares) and/or an offer for sale by existing holders, and is priced by book building within a price band.

IPO underpricing M06A

The average first-day return of IPOs, the listing price above the issue price. Rock's winner's-curse model explains it: uninformed investors receive more of the bad issues, so issues must be priced below expected value to keep them in the market. Long-run post-IPO returns are on average weak.

Iron condor M09M09A

A short strangle with long wings: short an OTM put and an OTM call, and long a further-OTM put and call. It is short volatility with maximum loss capped at the wing width minus the credit, which also caps its scenario margin.

ISIN M01

International Securities Identification Number, the 12-character code that identifies a security uniquely across exchanges and depositories (Indian equities begin with "INE"). Not discussed in the notes; data joins across NSE, BSE and depository records use it.

Itô's lemma M08

The chain rule of stochastic calculus: for dX=a dt+b dWdX = a\,dt + b\,dW and smooth f(t,x)f(t,x), df=(ft+afx+12b2fxx) dt+bfx dWdf = (f_t + af_x + \tfrac12b^2f_{xx})\,dt + bf_x\,dW. The extra 12b2fxx\tfrac12b^2f_{xx} term, from (dW)2=dt(dW)^2 = dt, produces volatility drag and the Black–Scholes PDE.

IV percentile M09A

The share of past days in a trailing window whose implied volatility was below today's, IVPt=1n−1#{s:t−n<s<t, σs<σt}\mathrm{IVP}_t = \frac1{n-1}\#\{s : t-n < s < t,\ \sigma_s < \sigma_t\}. Under exchangeability it is uniform whatever the distribution of IV.

IV rank M09A

Today's implied volatility located between the trailing window's minimum and maximum, IVRt=(σt−min⁡σ)/(max⁡σ−min⁡σ)\mathrm{IVR}_t = (\sigma_t - \min\sigma)/(\max\sigma - \min\sigma). Unlike IV percentile its distribution depends on the distribution of IV, and a single spike compresses it for a year.

J

Jensen's alpha M06B

The intercept of a regression of a fund's excess returns on the market's excess returns (or on several factors): the average return not explained by factor exposure (Jensen 1968; M06B (6B.18)).

Johansen test M13A

A maximum-likelihood test of the number of cointegrating relations rr in a VAR, from the eigenvalues of a reduced-rank regression: the trace statistic −T∑i>rln⁡(1−λ^i)-T\sum_{i>r}\ln(1 - \hat\lambda_i) and the maximum-eigenvalue statistic −Tln⁡(1−λ^r+1)-T\ln(1 - \hat\lambda_{r+1}). It handles more than two series and does not need a choice of dependent variable.

K

Kalman filter M13A

The recursive optimal estimator of a hidden linear-Gaussian state, here a time-varying hedge ratio btb_t following a random walk: predict Pt∣t−1=Pt−1∣t−1+QP_{t\mid t-1} = P_{t-1\mid t-1} + Q, compute the gain Kt=Pt∣t−1xt/FtK_t = P_{t\mid t-1}x_t/F_t, update bt∣t=bt∣t−1+Ktetb_{t\mid t} = b_{t\mid t-1} + K_te_t. In steady state it is an exponentially weighted estimator.

Kelly criterion M03M09M14

Sizing bets to maximise expected log wealth, which maximises the long-run growth rate almost surely. For a binary bet with odds bb and win probability pp, f∗=p−q/bf^* = p - q/b; in continuous time f∗=(μ−r)/σ2f^* = (\mu - r)/\sigma^2 with growth r+S2/2r + S^2/2. Betting twice Kelly gives zero excess growth, and estimation error argues for fractions below 1.

Kurtosis M02M13

The standardised fourth moment κ=E(X−μ)4/σ4\kappa = E(X-\mu)^4/\sigma^4, equal to 3 for a normal; excess kurtosis is κ−3\kappa - 3 (the course writes κ\kappa for kurtosis and KK for excess kurtosis). Stochastic volatility raises it, and with a tail index near 3 its sample estimate is unreliable.

Kyle's lambda M05

The price impact per unit of net order flow in Kyle's (1985) model, λ=σv/(2σu)\lambda = \sigma_v/(2\sigma_u), where σv\sigma_v is the uncertainty of the asset's value and σu\sigma_u the volatility of noise trading. The insider trades β=σu/σv\beta = \sigma_u/\sigma_v per unit of private information and half of it is revealed by the price.

L

LAF corridor M11

The RBI's Liquidity Adjustment Facility corridor for overnight rates: floor at the Standing Deposit Facility (repo − 25 bp) and ceiling at the Marginal Standing Facility (repo + 25 bp). The weighted average call rate, the operating target, sits near the floor in liquidity surplus and near the ceiling in deficit.

Late trading and market timing M06B

Market timing exploits stale fund prices with frequent round trips; late trading, which is illegal, places orders after the pricing time at that time's NAV. Both transfer wealth from long-term holders; they were the subject of the US mutual fund scandal of 2003 (M06B · 6B.12.4).

Leakage M13M04

Contamination of a model's evaluation by information from the test period, for example when overlapping labels or trailing features in the training set span the test window. Ordinary k-fold cross-validation leaks on financial time series; purging and embargoing remove it.

Ledoit–Wolf shrinkage M14

Estimating a covariance matrix as a convex combination δF+(1−δ)S\delta F + (1-\delta)S of the sample covariance SS and a structured target FF (such as constant correlation), with the intensity δ∗=E∥S−Σ∥2/(E∥S−Σ∥2+∥Σ−F∥2)\delta^* = \mathbb E\|S - \Sigma\|^2/(\mathbb E\|S - \Sigma\|^2 + \|\Sigma - F\|^2) that minimises expected squared error. It stabilises mean–variance weights.

Leverage M14M03M07

The ratio of position size to equity, λ=V/E\lambda = V/E. Static leverage magnifies returns linearly; constant (rebalanced) leverage on GBM gives log growth c+λ(μ−c)−12λ2σ2c + \lambda(\mu - c) - \tfrac12\lambda^2\sigma^2 with borrowing cost cc, so volatility drag grows with λ2\lambda^2, and a margin call arrives at a computable price before the planned drawdown.

Limit order M01M05

An order to buy at or below, or sell at or above, a specified price. If it cannot trade on arrival it rests in the book and supplies liquidity; it controls price but not execution, and it gives others a free option to trade against it on news.

Limit order book (CLOB) M01M05

The continuous limit order book: the set of resting buy and sell limit orders, matched under price-time priority, with each trade at the resting (maker's) price. Between the auctions, every NSE and BSE trade happens in it.

Local volatility M09

A volatility function σloc(S,t)\sigma_{\text{loc}}(S,t) such that the diffusion dS=(r−q)S dt+σlocS dWdS = (r-q)S\,dt + \sigma_{\text{loc}}S\,dW reproduces every European option price on the surface. Dupire's formula gives it from call prices: σloc2=[∂TC+(r−q)K∂KC+qC]/[12K2∂K2C]\sigma_{\text{loc}}^2 = [\partial_TC + (r-q)K\partial_KC + qC]/[\tfrac12K^2\partial_K^2C].

Log return M02M08M10

The continuously compounded return rt=ln⁡(Pt/Pt−1)=ln⁡(1+Rt)r_t = \ln(P_t/P_{t-1}) = \ln(1 + R_t). Log returns add over time (a kk-period log return is the sum of one-period ones), while simple returns add across assets in a portfolio.

Log score M13

The logarithmic scoring rule for probability forecasts, scored as a loss: −1N∑iln⁡pi(yi)-\frac1N\sum_i\ln p_i(y_i), the average negative log probability given to what happened. It is strictly proper and unbounded (a probability of 0 on an event that occurs scores +∞+\infty), and is tied to a Kelly bettor's log-wealth growth.

Lognormal distribution M08M02

The distribution of eXe^X for normal XX. Under GBM, STS_T is lognormal: ln⁡ST∼N(ln⁡S0+(μ−σ2/2)T,σ2T)\ln S_T \sim N(\ln S_0 + (\mu - \sigma^2/2)T, \sigma^2T), so its mean exceeds its median and P(ST<EST)=Φ(σT/2)>12P(S_T < E S_T) = \Phi(\sigma\sqrt T/2) > \tfrac12.

Look-ahead bias M04M13M04A

Using at time tt information that was not available at tt: same-bar closes for same-bar decisions, restated fundamentals, revised index membership, smoothed regime probabilities, or vendor-adjusted prices. An event-driven backtest that only reads data timestamped before each decision provably avoids it.

Loss aversion M14

The asymmetry in prospect theory by which losses weigh more than equal gains; Tversky and Kahneman (1992) estimate the loss coefficient at 2.25, so v(x)=−2.25(−x)0.88v(x) = -2.25(-x)^{0.88} for losses.

Lot size M01M07M08M09AM03

The number of units of the underlying in one derivatives contract. Nifty 65 and Bank Nifty 30, as of the 5 Nov 2026 NSE F&O bhavcopy (field NewBrdLotQty); SEBI keeps index contract values in a ₹15–20 lakh band, so lots change as the index moves. Read the lot from the bhavcopy of the date you trade.

LRS (Liberalised Remittance Scheme) M11

The RBI scheme under which resident Indian individuals may remit up to an annual limit abroad for permitted purposes, including overseas investment. Not covered in the notes; it is the channel through which residents invest in foreign markets and is part of the rupee's capital-account plumbing.

LTCG (long-term capital gains) M01M14

Gains on listed equity held more than 12 months with STT paid, taxed at 12.5% on gains above ₹1.25 lakh a year without indexation (transfers from 23 Jul 2024; as of 6 Nov 2026, before surcharge and cess). Long-term losses can be set off only against long-term gains.

Lundberg exponent M03

The positive root θ\theta of E(1+fX)−θ=1E(1 + fX)^{-\theta} = 1 for fixed-fractional betting with per-bet return XX. It bounds the probability of ever falling to a fraction xx of initial wealth, P≤xθP \le x^\theta; θ=1\theta = 1 at the Kelly fraction and θ≈2/c−1\theta \approx 2/c - 1 at cc times Kelly.

M

Maker and taker M01M05

In a limit order book, the maker is the resting order that supplied liquidity and the taker is the arriving marketable order that removed it. The trade prints at the maker's price; the taker pays the spread and the maker bears adverse selection.

Margin call M07M14M03

A demand for additional collateral when an account's equity falls below the required margin. In the textbook model it is triggered at a maintenance level below initial margin; in India every futures MTM loss is collected daily and the full margin must be maintained at all times. For a leveraged position the trigger is a computable price.

Margin of safety M06

The discount of price to estimated intrinsic value required before buying. The course states it as a probability: buy only if the price is below a low quantile qαq_\alpha of a Monte Carlo distribution of intrinsic value, which accounts for uncertainty in growth, margins and the discount rate.

Margin pledge M14

Using shares already held as collateral for trading margin: under SEBI's pledge/re-pledge framework (mandatory from 1 Sep 2020, per broker notices) the shares stay in the client's demat account, marked as pledged to the broker and re-pledged to the clearing corporation, and count at market value less a haircut. For derivatives, at least half the margin must be in cash or cash equivalents (secondary sources).

Margin Trading Facility (MTF) M14

A regulated arrangement in which a broker funds part of a client's purchase of delivery shares, which are pledged to the broker; the client pays an initial margin and interest on the funded amount. For Group I F&O stocks the margin is VaR + 3 × ELM and for other Group I stocks and equity ETFs VaR + 5 × ELM (SEBI master circular as reproduced 18 Jun 2026), so permitted leverage falls as volatility rises.

Mark-to-market (MTM) M07M14

Revaluing a position at the day's settlement price and paying or receiving the change in cash. For futures the daily variation margin is mt=Q(Ft−Ft−1)m_t = Q(F_t - F_{t-1}); the cash flows sum to the forward's P&L, but their timing makes the cash demands path-dependent.

Market impact M05M01

The adverse move in price caused by one's own trading, split into a temporary part that decays after the trade and a permanent part that reflects information. It is the largest cost of large orders, does not appear on the contract note, and is concave in size (the square-root law).

Market maker / authorised participant (ETF) M06B

An exchange member appointed by the AMC to quote two-way prices in an ETF and to create or redeem creation units with the AMC. Its arbitrage between the ETF price and the basket bounds the premium; when creations stop, the upper bound disappears (M06B · 6B.9.3).

Market model M12

The regression Riτ=αi+βiRmτ+εiτR_{i\tau} = \alpha_i + \beta_iR_{m\tau} + \varepsilon_{i\tau} of a stock's return on a market index return, estimated on a pre-event window, used to define normal returns in event studies.

Market order M01M04A

An order with no price limit that trades immediately against the best available opposite orders until filled. Its average fill price pˉ(Q)\bar p(Q) worsens with size as it walks up the book; it guarantees execution, not price.

Market-wide circuit breaker (MWCB) M01M02

An index-based trading halt across all equity and equity-derivative markets triggered by a 10%, 15% or 20% move in the Nifty 50 or Sensex from the previous close (in force since 2 Jul 2001), with halt length depending on the time of day. Trading resumes through a pre-open call auction.

Martingale M02M03M08M04AM13

A process with E[Xt+1∣Ft]=XtE[X_{t+1} \mid \mathcal F_t] = X_t: the best forecast of tomorrow's value is today's. Under an efficient market excess returns are martingale differences; discounted prices are martingales under the risk-neutral measure; the optional stopping theorem says no stopping rule changes a martingale's expected value.

Max pain M09A

The settlement level x∗x^\ast that minimises the aggregate payout to option holders, W(x)=∑K[cK(x−K)++pK(K−x)+]W(x) = \sum_K[c_K(x-K)^+ + p_K(K-x)^+], using open interest cK,pKc_K, p_K of one expiry. It is an OI balance point (a weighted median of OI when call and put OI are balanced), so it lags where positions were opened; on 31 Nifty expiries in 2026 it predicted settlement no better than the previous close.

Maximum drawdown (MDD) M03M14

The largest drawdown over a period, MDDT=sup⁡t≤TDt\text{MDD}_T = \sup_{t \le T}D_t. For Brownian log-wealth its expected value grows only logarithmically in TT; for a trade list its distribution is estimated by bootstrap.

MCX M10M13AM07

The Multi Commodity Exchange of India, the main Indian exchange for commodity futures and options on futures (bullion, energy, base metals). Bullion futures have a tender period before expiry during which longs can be assigned delivery, and ITM MCX options devolve into futures positions at expiry.

Mean reversion M13AM10

The tendency of a series to move back toward a long-run level, as in a stationary AR(1) or Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process; it is quantified by the speed κ\kappa or the half-life. Price levels of single stocks are close to random walks, so mean reversion is sought in spreads of cointegrated assets.

Mean–variance optimisation M14M06

Choosing portfolio weights to minimise variance w′Σww'\Sigma w for a target mean w′μw'\mu (or maximise w′μ−γ2w′Σww'\mu - \tfrac\gamma2w'\Sigma w). It gives the global minimum-variance, frontier and tangency portfolios; with sample estimates it is unstable, because weights respond to μ\mu through Σ−1\Sigma^{-1}.

Merger arbitrage M06A

Buying a takeover target after a deal is announced to earn the spread to the deal value DD. The spread implies a completion probability p=[PT(1+rT)−c−F]/(D−F)p = [P_T(1 + rT) - c - F]/(D - F), with FF the fallback price, and the payoff min⁡(S,D)\min(S, D) resembles a short put: small steady gains and rare large losses.

Meta-labelling M13

A second model that, given a primary model's trade signal, predicts whether that trade will hit its profit-taking barrier (a binary label), and is used to size or filter the primary signal rather than choose its direction.

MFD (mutual fund distributor) M06B

A distributor registered with AMFI (holding an ARN after the NISM Series V-A certification) who sells regular plans and is paid trail commission from the scheme's expenses.

MIBOR M09M08

The Mumbai Interbank Offered Rate, a benchmark for short-term INR interbank lending published for several tenors. India VIX uses the relevant-tenor NSE MIBOR as its interest rate.

Minimum track record length (MinTRL) M04

The number of observations needed for the probabilistic Sharpe ratio to exceed 1−α1 - \alpha against a benchmark Sharpe S∗S^*: 1+(1−γ^3S^+γ^4−14S^2)(z1−α/(S^−S∗))21 + (1 - \hat\gamma_3\hat S + \frac{\hat\gamma_4 - 1}4\hat S^2)(z_{1-\alpha}/(\hat S - S^*))^2. Negative skew and fat tails lengthen it.

MIS (intraday product) M01M14

A broker product code for intraday positions that the broker squares off automatically before the close. Since the peak-margin rules (2021), brokers cannot give intraday leverage beyond exchange margins; an uncovered MIS short becomes a short delivery at settlement.

Moat M06

A durable competitive advantage (brand, network effects, switching costs, scale or process cost advantages, licences) that keeps a company's return on new invested capital above its cost of capital after competitors respond. Without one, competition drives RONIC toward WACC and growth adds no value.

Modified duration M11

The percentage price change of a bond per unit change in yield, Dmod=−P′(y)/P=Dmac/(1+y/m)D_{\text{mod}} = -P'(y)/P = D_{\text{mac}}/(1 + y/m) for mm coupons a year. A modified duration of 7 means a 1 percentage-point rise in yield lowers the price by about 7%.

Momentum M04M06AM04A

The tendency of assets with high past returns (typically over 3–12 months, skipping the last month) to keep outperforming. Cross-sectional momentum ranks assets against each other; time-series momentum trades each asset on the sign of its own past return. Moving-average rules on log prices are positively weighted sums of past returns, i.e. momentum rules.

Momentum crash M04M06A

A sudden large loss of a cross-sectional momentum portfolio, typically in a sharp rebound after a bear market: past losers then have high betas, so the long–short portfolio is short the market exactly when it rallies.

Moneyness M08M09

The position of an option's strike relative to the underlying: in, at or out of the money. Desks measure it by ln⁡(F/K)\ln(F/K), by K/FK/F, or by delta (e.g. a 25-delta put), because the forward is the risk-neutral mean of the underlying.

Moving average M04M04A

A simple (SMAn\mathrm{SMA}_n, equal weights over nn bars) or exponential (EMA, geometrically declining weights) average of past prices. A crossover SMAm−SMAn\mathrm{SMA}_m - \mathrm{SMA}_n of log prices is a positively weighted sum of past returns, so MA rules are momentum rules.

MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) M11M09AM04A

The six-member RBI committee that sets the policy repo rate to meet the inflation target. On 7 Oct 2026 it raised the repo by 25 bp to 5.50% and moved its stance to "calibrated tightening" (as of 6 Nov 2026).

Multiple testing M04M06AM12M14

Testing many hypotheses (rules, parameters, assets, horizons) on the same data, which inflates the chance of false positives: with kk independent tests at level α\alpha the chance of at least one is 1−(1−α)k1 - (1-\alpha)^k. Corrections include Bonferroni, Holm, Benjamini–Hochberg, White's Reality Check and the deflated Sharpe ratio.

Murphy decomposition M13

The decomposition of the Brier score of binned forecasts into reliability minus resolution plus uncertainty: BS=1N∑knk(fk−yˉk)2−1N∑knk(yˉk−yˉ)2+yˉ(1−yˉ)\mathrm{BS} = \frac1N\sum_kn_k(f_k - \bar y_k)^2 - \frac1N\sum_kn_k(\bar y_k - \bar y)^2 + \bar y(1 - \bar y). A good forecaster has small reliability error and large resolution.

Mutual fund (Indian trust structure) M06BM00

A trust registered with SEBI that pools investors' money in schemes and issues units. The sponsor sets it up, the trustee holds the assets for unitholders, the AMC manages them, the custodian keeps them and the RTA keeps the register. Scheme assets are not on the AMC's balance sheet, so an AMC's failure does not take them (M06B · 6B.1).

N

NBFC M06AM06

Non-banking financial company: an RBI-regulated lender that cannot take current or savings deposits, so it funds itself from banks and bond markets. Its NIM must come from higher lending yields, and asset-liability mismatch is its main risk (IL&FS and DHFL).

NDF (non-deliverable forward) M11

An offshore currency forward settled in dollars on the difference between the contracted rate and the fixing, with no delivery of the restricted currency. The rupee NDF market prices INR outside India's capital controls; when it diverges from onshore forwards the RBI often acts in both.

Net interest margin (NIM) M06AM11

Interest income minus interest expense over average assets (banks often quote it over interest-earning assets; be consistent). It is the first line of the bank ROA tree; a high CASA ratio supports it, and repo-linked loans make it widen briefly after rate hikes.

NFO (new fund offer) M06B

The initial offer of a new scheme's units, usually at ₹10 a unit. The low price is not cheapness: a unit's NAV level says nothing about value.

Nifty 50 M01M02M07M08

NSE's benchmark index of 50 large, liquid Indian stocks, weighted by free-float market capitalisation (base 1,000 on 3 Nov 1995; free-float since 26 Jun 2009) and rebalanced semi-annually. It is a price index; the Nifty 50 TRI adds reinvested dividends. Its futures and options are the most traded Indian derivatives.

NNPA (net NPA ratio) M06A

Net non-performing assets (gross NPAs minus provisions held against them) as a share of net loans: NNPA=GNPA(1−PCR)/(1−GNPA⋅PCR)\text{NNPA} = \text{GNPA}(1 - \text{PCR})/(1 - \text{GNPA}\cdot\text{PCR}). GNPA 5% with 70% coverage gives NNPA 1.55%.

NOPAT M06

Net operating profit after tax: operating profit (EBIT) times (1−τ)(1 - \tau), the profit of the operating business independent of financing. Growth requires reinvestment of a share g/RONICg/\text{RONIC} of it, which gives the value-driver formula V=NOPAT1(1−g/RONIC)/(WACC−g)V = \text{NOPAT}_1(1 - g/\text{RONIC})/(\text{WACC} - g).

Novation M01

The replacement of a buyer–seller contract by two contracts, buyer–clearing corporation and clearing corporation–seller. It makes the clearing corporation the counterparty to every exchange trade, so traders bear no counterparty risk to each other.

NRML M01

A broker product code for carry-forward (overnight) F&O positions, held with full exchange margin until closed or expired, as opposed to intraday MIS positions.

NSE M01M09AM07

The National Stock Exchange of India, incorporated in 1992, which began equity trading on 3 Nov 1994 and derivatives on 12 Jun 2000. It runs the matching engine for equities and F&O, owns the Nifty indices, and publishes the bhavcopies, participant OI and India VIX used in the course.

NSE Clearing (NSCCL) M01M07M09A

NSE Clearing Ltd, formerly National Securities Clearing Corporation Ltd (NSCCL): the clearing corporation for NSE trades. It novates trades, nets obligations, sets and collects margins (SPAN, ELM, VaR), publishes risk parameters and haircuts, and runs settlement with the depositories.

O

OFS (offer for sale) M06A

The sale of existing shares by promoters or investors, either as the secondary component of an IPO (the company receives no money) or through a separate exchange window for listed companies. An IPO's OFS component is insiders selling.

OI build-up labels M07M09AM04A

The four labels Indian commentary assigns from the signs of the daily price change and change in open interest: long build-up (+,+)(+,+), short build-up (−,+)(-,+), short covering (+,−)(+,-) and long unwinding (−,−)(-,-). Every contract has a long and a short, so they do not identify who initiated trades, and for options theta and vega can flip the price sign.

OIS (overnight index swap) M11

An interest-rate swap exchanging a fixed rate for the compounded overnight rate over the swap's term; in India the floating leg is the overnight MIBOR. OIS rates are the market's read of the expected policy-rate path. Not covered in the notes.

Open interest (OI) M07M09AM04A

The number of futures or options contracts outstanding (opened and not yet closed or expired), each with one long and one short. It changes by opening minus closing trades, ΔOI=Noo−Ncc\Delta\text{OI} = N_{oo} - N_{cc}, so volume is always at least ∣ΔOI∣|\Delta\text{OI}|. NSE's bhavcopy reports OI in units (contracts × lot).

Open offer M06A

A mandatory offer under SEBI's SAST Regulations to buy at least 26% of a company's shares from public shareholders when an acquirer crosses 25% of voting rights, creeps up by more than 5% a year from 25% or more, or acquires control, at a regulated minimum price. Acceptance is proportionate, so the payoff of tendering is aPo+(1−a)P1aP_o + (1-a)P_1.

Option chain M09A

A table of all options on one underlying for one expiry, strikes down the middle with calls on one side and puts on the other, showing for each option the last price, bid and ask, change, implied volatility, open interest, change in OI and volume. The IV column depends on the screen's choice of price, forward and time convention; the market's forward should come from put–call parity.

Optional stopping theorem M03M04A

For a martingale MtM_t and a suitably bounded stopping time τ\tau, E[Mτ]=M0E[M_\tau] = M_0. It gives gambler's-ruin probabilities, the probability of hitting a target before a stop, and the result that no exit rule creates expectancy on a driftless price.

Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process M13AM10

The mean-reverting diffusion dX=κ(θ−X) dt+σ dWdX = \kappa(\theta - X)\,dt + \sigma\,dW with speed κ\kappa, long-run mean θ\theta and half-life ln⁡2/κ\ln2/\kappa. Sampled at interval Δ\Delta it is exactly an AR(1) with b=e−κΔb = e^{-\kappa\Delta}, which gives its maximum-likelihood estimates; it models the spread in pairs trading.

Out of the money (OTM) M08M09M09A

An option with zero intrinsic value whose price is all time value: a call with S<KS < K, a put with S>KS > K. OTM options are used for VIX-style variance replication and are the cheap, lottery-like options most retail traders buy.

Out-of-sample R² M13

Campbell and Thompson's measure of a return predictor against the historical mean: ROS2=1−∑(rt−r^t)2/∑(rt−rˉt)2R^2_{OS} = 1 - \sum(r_t - \hat r_t)^2/\sum(r_t - \bar r_t)^2 with rˉt\bar r_t the mean known at tt. Small positive values can be economically valuable: with buy-and-hold Sharpe ratio SS, a predictor with R2R^2 lets a mean–variance investor reach S∗2=(S2+R2)/(1−R2)S^{*2} = (S^2 + R^2)/(1 - R^2).

Overconfidence M14M13M05

Overestimating the precision of one's information or skill. It leads to excessive trading, which lowers net returns (Barber and Odean), and to forecasts that are too extreme, which proper scoring rules penalise.

Overfitting M04M13

Fitting noise in the sample by choosing among many models or parameters, so that in-sample performance overstates out-of-sample performance. In backtests it is measured by the probability of backtest overfitting and corrected with the deflated Sharpe ratio.

Overseas investment limit (mutual funds) M06B

The cap on Indian mutual funds' foreign investment: US$7 bn industry-wide, US$1 bn per AMC, and US$1 bn industry-wide through overseas ETFs (as of 2026). When it binds, international schemes stop taking money and their ETFs can trade at large premiums (M06B · 6B.9.3).

P

P/B (price-to-book) M06M06A

Market price over book value of equity per share. The justified P/B from the Gordon or residual-income model is (ROE−g)/(k−g)(\text{ROE} - g)/(k - g), so a bank earning exactly its cost of equity is worth book; banks and NBFCs are valued on it.

P/E (price-to-earnings) M06M06AM11

Market price over earnings per share. The justified forward P/E from the Gordon model is P0/E1=(1−g/ROE)/(k−g)P_0/E_1 = (1 - g/\text{ROE})/(k - g): a multiple encodes growth, return on equity and the discount rate, and should be read through them.

Pairs trading M13A

Trading the spread between two related assets, long one and short the other in a hedge ratio, betting that deviations revert. It needs cointegration, not correlation of returns; entry and exit bands can be optimised for an OU spread after costs, and structural breaks are the main risk.

Parkinson estimator M09M04A

A range-based variance estimator, σ^2=(ln⁡H/L)2/(4ln⁡2)\hat\sigma^2 = (\ln H/L)^2/(4\ln2) per bar, about 4.9 times as efficient as squared close-to-close returns under driftless Brownian motion, but biased by drift, opening gaps and discrete sampling.

Participant-wise open interest M09AM04A

NSE's daily file splitting long and short open contracts in index and stock futures and options among Client, DII, FII and Pro. Longs equal shorts across the four categories for each instrument; the file shows positioning but not hedges, deltas or which underlying index.

PEAD (post-earnings-announcement drift) M06A

The tendency of stock prices to keep moving in the direction of an earnings surprise for weeks after the announcement, documented by Bernard and Thomas. It is explained by investors anchoring on naive (seasonal random-walk) expectations, which makes future surprises predictable from current SUE.

Peak margin M07M01

The Indian rule (phased in from 2021) that margin is checked against positions at random intraday snapshots, so the full required margin must be held at the peak intraday position, not only at the end of day. It ended broker-funded intraday leverage beyond exchange margins.

Physical settlement M09AM08M07

Settlement of a derivative at expiry by delivery of the underlying rather than cash. NSE stock futures and options are physically settled (completed in 2019): every ITM stock option is exercised, so a long call or short put obliges the holder to pay strike × lot for the shares.

Pinning M09A

The tendency of a stock's price to settle near a heavily traded strike at expiry. A mechanism exists when delta-hedging dealers are net long gamma there: their hedging trades against moves, damping volatility to σ/(1+λG)\sigma/(1 + \lambda G). It is distinct from the max-pain claim.

Piotroski F-score M06

A score from 0 to 9 summing nine binary signals of improving profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency between two years of statements (e.g. positive ROA and operating cash flow, accruals below cash flow, falling leverage, rising margins and asset turnover). It separates stronger from weaker value stocks.

Pledge (promoter) M06AM06M14

A loan to a promoter secured on his shares, which the lender sells (invokes) if the cover nP/LnP/L falls below a threshold cc, at the trigger price P∗=cL/nP^* = cL/n. Invocation sells into a falling market and can cascade; a rising pledge percentage is a forensic red flag. Promoters must disclose pledges under SAST.

Portfolio overlap M06B

The sum over securities of the smaller of two portfolios' weights, ∑imin⁡(wiA,wiB)\sum_i\min(w^A_i, w^B_i); equal to one minus half the sum of absolute weight differences. SEBI requires monthly category-wise overlap disclosure from 2026 (M06B (6B.32)).

Position sizing M03M04AM14

Choosing the quantity to trade from a risk budget. Fixed-fractional sizing risks a fraction ff of equity EqE_q between entry PeP_e and stop PsP_s: Q=ℓ⌊⌊fEq/∣Pe−Ps∣⌋/ℓ⌋Q = \ell\lfloor\lfloor fE_q/|P_e - P_s|\rfloor/\ell\rfloor for lot size ℓ\ell; gaps, correlation and estimation error argue for smaller sizes than the formula suggests.

PPP (purchasing power parity) M11

The hypothesis that exchange rates equalise the price of goods across countries (absolute PPP) or that currencies depreciate by the inflation differential (relative PPP). It is a weak guide year to year but a useful long-run anchor; for INR, depreciation has roughly tracked India's 2–4 pp inflation gap over the US.

Pre-open session M01M04A

The 09:00–09:15 call auction that sets NSE and BSE opening prices. From 7 Sep 2026 market and limit orders are accepted to 09:05, limit orders only thereafter, and order entry closes at a random time between 09:08 and 09:10, followed by matching and a buffer (broker summaries of the NSE circular). Stop-loss and IOC orders are not accepted.

Probabilistic Sharpe ratio (PSR) M04

The probability that a strategy's true Sharpe ratio exceeds a benchmark S∗S^*, given its estimate over TT observations and the returns' skewness and kurtosis: Φ((S^−S∗)T−1/1−γ^3S^+γ^4−14S^2)\Phi\big((\hat S - S^*)\sqrt{T-1}/\sqrt{1 - \hat\gamma_3\hat S + \frac{\hat\gamma_4 - 1}4\hat S^2}\big).

Probability of backtest overfitting (PBO) M04

The probability that the strategy selected as best in sample ranks below the median out of sample, estimated by combinatorially symmetric cross-validation over many in-sample/out-of-sample splits. A PBO near 0.5 means the selection procedure is choosing noise.

Promoter M06AM06M01

In Indian corporate law, the person or group that controls a listed company and is named as such in its filings, usually the founding family or parent company. Promoter holdings are excluded from free float; promoter buying, selling and pledging are disclosed and watched as signals.

Proper scoring rule M13

A rule for scoring probability forecasts under which a forecaster minimises her expected score by reporting her true belief; it is strictly proper if the true belief is the unique minimiser. The Brier and log scores are strictly proper.

Prospect theory M14M04A

Kahneman and Tversky's descriptive model of choice under risk: outcomes are valued as gains and losses from a reference point by v(x)=x0.88v(x) = x^{0.88} for gains and −2.25(−x)0.88-2.25(-x)^{0.88} for losses, and probabilities are distorted by an inverse-S weighting function (TK 1992 parameters). It explains the disposition effect and the appeal of lottery-like options.

Provision coverage ratio (PCR) M06A

Provisions held against non-performing loans as a share of gross NPAs. With GNPA ratio gg and coverage pp, net NPAs are g(1−p)g(1-p) of gross loans. Note that "PCR" also abbreviates the put–call ratio (M09A).

Purged cross-validation M13M04

k-fold cross-validation for labels that span time: training observations whose label interval [t0,i,t1,i][t_{0,i}, t_{1,i}] overlaps the test block are removed (purged), and an embargo follows the block. It prevents the leakage that overlapping labels create in ordinary k-fold.

Put option M08

The right, not the obligation, to sell the underlying at the strike KK on (European) or before (American) expiry, with payoff (K−ST)+(K - S_T)^+. Index puts are bought as portfolio insurance and sold to earn the variance risk premium.

Put–call parity M08M09A

The no-arbitrage identity for European options with the same strike and expiry: c−p=Se−qT−Ke−rT=e−rT(F−K)c - p = Se^{-qT} - Ke^{-rT} = e^{-rT}(F - K). Inverted, F=K+erτ(C−P)F = K + e^{r\tau}(C - P) gives the market's own forward from an option chain.

Put–call ratio (PCR) M09A

The ratio of put to call open interest, PCROI=∑KpK/∑KcK\mathrm{PCR}_{OI} = \sum_Kp_K/\sum_Kc_K, or of put to call volume, PCRvol=∑KvKp/∑KvKc\mathrm{PCR}_{vol} = \sum_Kv^p_K/\sum_Kv^c_K, for one expiry or summed across expiries. It depends on the strikes included and on hedging activity, and in 2026 Nifty data had no useful one-day predictive power. (In M06A, PCR means provision coverage ratio.)

Pyramiding M04A

Adding to a winning position in steps as price moves in its favour. Any scaling rule earns μ\mu times expected exposure-time, EG=μ E∫θ dt\mathbb E G = \mu\,\mathbb E\int\theta\,dt, so it changes risk and the distribution of outcomes but creates no expectancy on a driftless price.

Q

QIB (qualified institutional buyer) M06A

An institutional investor category in Indian public issues (mutual funds, FPIs, banks, insurers and similar). In a book-built IPO by a profitable issuer at most 50% of the issue goes to QIBs, part of which may go to anchor investors.

R

R-multiple M03M04AM14

A trade's profit after costs divided by its initial risk 1R=∣Pe−Ps∣Q1R = |P_e - P_s|Q, the planned loss if the stop is hit. Expressing results in R makes trades of different sizes comparable and is the basis of expectancy and SQN.

Random walk M02M13AM04A

A process whose increments are independent (or at least uncorrelated) with constant distribution, Xt=Xt−1+εtX_t = X_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t. Log prices are close to random walks; it has a unit root, so its variance grows linearly with time and regressions of one random walk on another are spurious.

RBI M11M06AM10

The Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. Through its Monetary Policy Committee it sets the policy repo rate to meet the CPI inflation target; it also runs the LAF liquidity corridor, sets CRR and SLR, manages forex reserves and intervenes in the rupee, regulates banks and NBFCs, and auctions government securities.

Real interest rate M11M10

The interest rate net of inflation, r≈i−πer \approx i - \pi^e by the Fisher relation, observed directly as the yield on inflation-indexed bonds. Rising real yields lower the value of long-duration assets: long bonds, growth stocks and non-yielding gold.

Realised volatility M09M02M13

Volatility measured from the path actually followed, e.g. the annualised standard deviation of daily log returns (252 trading days in the course), or range-based estimators (Parkinson, Garman–Klass, Rogers–Satchell, Yang–Zhang) from OHLC data. It is compared with implied volatility to judge option prices.

Record date M01M06A

The date on which a company determines who is entitled to a dividend, bonus, split, rights or buyback, from depository records. Under T+1 a purchase must be made by the trading day before the record date to be on record.

Reflection principle M04AM09

The result that a Brownian path which reaches a level bb is equally likely to end above or below it, so P(max⁡s≤TWs≥b)=2P(WT≥b)P(\max_{s \le T}W_s \ge b) = 2P(W_T \ge b). It gives stop-out and gap-fill probabilities; discrete (closing-basis) monitoring is corrected by shifting the barrier by 0.5826 σΔt0.5826\,\sigma\sqrt{\Delta t}.

Relative volume M04AM04

Today's (or this bar's) volume divided by its average over a look-back window, often time-of-day matched intraday. It flags unusual activity; as a signal it must beat its distribution under the null.

Repo rate M11M08M09AM07

The policy rate at which the RBI lends overnight to banks against government securities, set by the MPC: 5.50% as of 6 Nov 2026 (raised from 5.25% on 7 Oct 2026). The LAF corridor runs 25 bp either side of it, and the course uses it as the INR risk-free rate in option examples.

Residual income model M06A

Equity value as book value plus the present value of future profits above the charge for equity: V0=B0+∑t(ROEt−k)Bt−1/(1+k)tV_0 = B_0 + \sum_t(\text{ROE}_t - k)B_{t-1}/(1+k)^t, valid under clean-surplus accounting. It gives bank P/B =(ROE−g)/(k−g)= (\text{ROE} - g)/(k - g).

Reverse DCF M06

Solving a DCF for the growth (or margin, or return) that the current market price implies, rather than for value. The root is unique because value is increasing in growth when RONIC exceeds WACC; it avoids anchoring on one's own forecast.

Rho M08

The sensitivity of an option's value to the risk-free rate, ∂V/∂r\partial V/\partial r: Kτe−rτN(d2)K\tau e^{-r\tau}N(d_2) for a call and −Kτe−rτN(−d2)-K\tau e^{-r\tau}N(-d_2) for a put, quoted per 1.00 of rr in the course. It is small for short-dated options.

RIA (registered investment adviser) M06B

An adviser registered with SEBI under the Investment Advisers Regulations, 2013, who charges the client a fee directly and recommends plans without commission. Advice and distribution must be kept separate.

Rights issue M01

An offer to existing holders of nn new shares for every NN held at a subscription price XX below market. The theoretical ex-rights price (TERP) is (NPc+nX)/(N+n)(NP_c + nX)/(N + n); an index divisor changes because the share count changes.

Risk parity M14M11

Allocating so that each asset or asset class contributes equally to portfolio risk, rather than equally to capital; the equal-risk-contribution portfolio. It usually holds more bonds than a 60/40 portfolio and may be levered to a target volatility.

Risk reversal and butterfly M09

Standard quotes of the implied-volatility smile: the 25-delta risk reversal RR25=σ25C−σ25PRR_{25} = \sigma_{25C} - \sigma_{25P} measures skew (negative for equity indices), and the butterfly BF25=12(σ25C+σ25P)−σATMBF_{25} = \tfrac12(\sigma_{25C} + \sigma_{25P}) - \sigma_{ATM} measures curvature.

Risk-neutral measure M08M09M07

The probability measure Q\mathbb Q under which discounted asset prices are martingales, so the underlying drifts at r−qr - q and any claim is worth e−rτEQ[payoff]e^{-r\tau}\mathbb E^{\mathbb Q}[\text{payoff}]. Its probabilities are pricing weights, not forecasts; they differ from real-world (P\mathbb P) probabilities by risk premia such as the variance risk premium.

Riskometer M06B

A six-level risk label (low to very high) that each scheme must show, computed from its portfolio and reviewed monthly. Debt schemes also show a potential risk class matrix of interest-rate risk against credit risk.

ROA (return on assets) M06AM06

Net income over average total assets. For a bank, ROA=(NIM+fees−opex−credit cost)(1−τ)\text{ROA} = (\text{NIM} + \text{fees} - \text{opex} - \text{credit cost})(1 - \tau) and ROE=ROA×A/B\text{ROE} = \text{ROA}\times A/B.

ROCE (return on capital employed) M06

Operating profit (EBIT) over capital employed (equity plus debt), usually on average capital. Indian screeners often include surplus cash in capital employed, which understates operating returns of cash-rich firms; the course's ROIC instead uses after-tax operating profit and excludes excess cash.

ROE (return on equity) M06M06A

Net income over opening (or average) book equity. With retention ratio bb, EPS grows sustainably at b×ROEb\times\text{ROE}; justified P/B is (ROE−g)/(k−g)(\text{ROE} - g)/(k - g), and for banks ROE is ROA times leverage A/BA/B.

ROIC (return on invested capital) M06

NOPAT over invested capital (operating assets net of excess cash). Growth creates value if and only if the return on new invested capital (RONIC) exceeds WACC; at RONIC = WACC growth is worthless.

Roll (futures rollover) M07M10M09A

Closing an expiring futures position and opening the same position in a later expiry. Its cost per unit is Ffar−FnearF_{\text{far}} - F_{\text{near}} (income in backwardation, a cost in contango); Indian brokers publish a rollover percentage, the share of OI moved to the next month by expiry.

Roll model M05

Roll's (1984) model of trade prices bouncing between bid and ask around a random-walk mid: pt=mt+s2qtp_t = m_t + \tfrac s2q_t with qt=±1q_t = \pm1. It implies Cov⁡(Δpt,Δpt−1)=−s2/4\operatorname{Cov}(\Delta p_t, \Delta p_{t-1}) = -s^2/4, so the spread is estimated as s^=2−γ^1\hat s = 2\sqrt{-\hat\gamma_1}; the estimator fails when order flow is persistent.

Roll yield M10M07

The part of a futures position's return due to the futures price converging to spot rather than to spot moving: minus the log basis at entry, −ct(T−t)-c_t(T - t) for a contract held to expiry. Negative in contango, positive in backwardation; along a curve it is −ln⁡(F2/F1)/(T2−T1)-\ln(F_2/F_1)/(T_2 - T_1).

RSI (relative strength index) M04

Wilder's oscillator, RSI=100−100/(1+avg gain/avg loss)\mathrm{RSI} = 100 - 100/(1 + \text{avg gain}/\text{avg loss}) over nn bars, equivalently 50+50 W(d)/W(∣d∣)50 + 50\,W(d)/W(|d|) with WW Wilder's smoother of price changes dd. "Overbought above 70" is a short-term reversal hypothesis to be tested.

RTA (registrar and transfer agent) M06B

The agent that keeps a mutual fund's register of unitholders, processes purchases, redemptions and switches, and issues account statements.

Run (fund) M06B

Mass redemptions from a fund that pays a NAV ignoring liquidation costs: each redemption dilutes the stayers by ρk/[(1−k)(1−ρ)]\rho k/[(1 - k)(1 - \rho)], so the incentive to leave grows with the number leaving (Chen, Goldstein and Jiang 2010; M06B Proposition 6B.10.2).

Rupee-cost averaging M06B

Investing a fixed rupee amount at regular intervals, so that more units are bought when prices are low. It lowers the average cost relative to the average price, not relative to a lump-sum purchase (Constantinides 1979; M06B Proposition 6B.6.2).

S

SAST Regulations M06A

SEBI's Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers Regulations, 2011. They require disclosure when a holding crosses 5% and on every 2% change thereafter, disclosure of promoter pledges (encumbrances), and a mandatory open offer for at least 26% when an acquirer reaches 25% of voting rights, creeps more than 5% a year above 25%, or acquires control.

Scenario tree M12

A decision tree for event analysis that alternates decision nodes (you choose) and chance nodes (scenarios with probabilities), solved by backward induction: expectation at chance nodes, maximum at decision nodes. Scenario probabilities are updated on news by Bayes' rule, and the expected value of perfect information bounds what research is worth.

SDL (state development loan) M11

A bond issued by an Indian state government through RBI auctions; SDLs trade at a spread over G-secs of similar maturity. Not covered in the notes.

SEBI M01M08M09AM06A

The Securities and Exchange Board of India, the securities-market regulator. It writes rules by regulation and circular, registers intermediaries (brokers, depositories, FPIs), enforces against manipulation, and publishes the studies of individual traders' P&L used throughout the course.

Sensex M01M02M12

BSE's benchmark index of 30 large Indian stocks, weighted by free-float market capitalisation. With the Nifty 50 it is one of the two indices whose moves trigger market-wide circuit breakers; BSE's Sensex options expire weekly on Thursdays (since 1 Sep 2025).

Sharpe ratio M04M02M14M13

Mean excess return divided by its standard deviation, S=μ/σS = \mu/\sigma, usually annualised (by q\sqrt q only if returns are serially uncorrelated). Its estimate has standard error about (1+S2/2)/T\sqrt{(1 + S^2/2)/T} under normality, larger with negative skew and fat tails, so a tt-statistic of 2 needs about 4/S24/S^2 years of data.

Short selling M14M01M13A

Selling shares one does not own to profit from a fall, buying them back later. In India naked short selling is not permitted: a cash-market short must be covered the same day or backed by shares borrowed through SLB; an uncovered short at settlement goes to the exchange's auction with penalties. Futures, puts and SLB are the overnight alternatives.

SID and KIM M06B

The scheme information document is the binding description of a scheme (objective, asset-allocation table, benchmark, loads, risks); the key information memorandum is its short version, which must accompany the application form. The statement of additional information (SAI) covers the fund house as a whole.

Side pocket (segregated portfolio) M06B

A separate portfolio into which a scheme moves a defaulted or downgraded security after a credit event; all holders on the record date get units in it, it is closed to subscriptions and redemptions, and recoveries are paid out. It stops leavers from shifting the loss to stayers (M06B · 6B.10).

SIF (Specialized Investment Fund) M06B

A mutual fund product for larger tickets (minimum ₹10 lakh across an AMC's SIF strategies, accredited investors exempt) that may run long–short equity, debt and hybrid strategies, including limited unhedged short positions through derivatives. Introduced in 2025 and now Chapter IX of the 2026 Regulations.

SIP (systematic investment plan) M06BM00

A standing instruction to invest a fixed amount in a scheme at regular intervals at the applicable NAV. The average cost per unit is the harmonic mean of the prices, below their arithmetic mean, but averaging is not an edge over investing a lump sum when expected returns exceed the cash rate (M06B · 6B.6).

Skew (volatility) M09M09A

The variation of implied volatility across strikes for one expiry, typically falling with strike for equity indices (OTM puts dearer than OTM calls), measured by the risk reversal. It reflects the negatively skewed, jump-prone risk-neutral distribution of index returns and demand for crash protection.

Skewness M02M09M04

The standardised third moment E(X−μ)3/σ3E(X - \mu)^3/\sigma^3, zero for a symmetric distribution; its sample standard error under normality is about 6/n\sqrt{6/n}. Systematic option selling has strongly negative skew, which lowers the Kelly fraction below the mean–variance value.

SL-M (stop-loss market) M01M04A

A stop order that becomes a market order when the last traded price reaches the trigger. It fills if there is liquidity, but at an unknown price that can be far beyond the trigger on a gap or fast day; several brokers do not offer it in F&O.

SLB (securities lending and borrowing) M14M13AM06A

The exchange-traded, screen-based market (with the clearing corporation as central counterparty) in which holders lend shares for a fee, quoted in rupees per share, for tenures of 1 to 12 months. Borrowing through SLB is the only way to hold a cash-market short overnight in India; borrowers post the lending price plus margins.

Slippage M01M04M14

The difference between the price at which a trade was intended (the mid or the signal price) and the average fill price, usually in basis points: 104(pˉ(Q)−m)/m10^4(\bar p(Q) - m)/m for a market buy. It combines the spread, walking the book and price moves during execution.

SLR (statutory liquidity ratio) M11

The share of deposits Indian banks must hold in liquid approved securities, mainly G-secs: 18% as of 6 Nov 2026. It creates captive demand for government bonds.

Smile (volatility) M09M08

The curve of implied volatility against strike (or moneyness) for one expiry. A flat line would mean the Black–Scholes lognormal model fits; the observed smile or skew encodes fat tails and skewness of the risk-neutral distribution.

SPAN M07M09AM14

Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk, the scenario-based margin system used by NSE Clearing for derivatives. It revalues the whole position under a grid of price and volatility scenarios (the classic design has 16, including two extreme moves at reduced weight) and charges the worst loss, plus spread charges and a short-option minimum. It is subadditive and at most the maximum loss for defined-risk spreads.

Specified mutual fund M06BM00

For Indian tax, a fund with more than 65% in debt and money-market instruments, or a FoF with more than 65% in such funds (definition from AY 2026-27). Gains on units bought from 1 Apr 2023 are taxed at slab rates whatever the holding period.

Speculative business income M01

The Indian tax classification of intraday equity trading (same-day buy and sell without delivery): taxed at slab rates; losses can be set off only against speculative income and carried forward 4 years. F&O income is non-speculative business income, whose losses can offset any income except salary and carry forward 8 years (as of 6 Nov 2026).

Split M01

Sub-division of shares: face value is reduced and the share count multiplied by kk (₹10 to ₹2 gives 5 for 1). The theoretical ex-price is Pc/kP_c/k; neither firm value nor an index divisor changes, but price history must be adjusted.

Spurious regression M13A

A regression of one independent random walk on another, which yields large tt-statistics (growing like T\sqrt T) and a non-vanishing R2R^2 even though the series are unrelated. Pairs chosen by price correlation are prone to it; cointegration tests are the remedy.

SQN (System Quality Number) M03M14

Van Tharp's statistic SQN=min⁡(N,100) Rˉ/sR\mathrm{SQN} = \sqrt{\min(N, 100)}\,\bar R/s_R for NN trades in R-multiples: a tt-statistic of mean expectancy, capped at 100 trades. It measures how consistently a system's trades have been profitable, not whether the edge will persist or survive selection.

Square-root impact law M05

The empirical regularity that the price impact of a metaorder of size QQ is I/P≈YσDQ/VDI/P \approx Y\sigma_D\sqrt{Q/V_D}, with σD\sigma_D daily volatility, VDV_D daily volume and YY of order one. Concave impact makes splitting an order over time worthwhile.

Stamp duty M01

A tax on the buy side of a transaction. On NSE as of 6 Nov 2026: 0.015% on equity delivery, 0.003% on intraday equity, 0.002% on futures and 0.003% on options (premium).

Stationarity M13M13AM10

A process is (weakly) stationary if its mean, variance and autocovariances do not change over time. Returns are approximately stationary while prices are not; most forecasting and mean-reversion tools assume it, and unit-root tests check it.

STCG (short-term capital gains) M01M14

Gains on listed equity held 12 months or less with STT paid, taxed at 20% flat (transfers from 23 Jul 2024; as of 6 Nov 2026, before surcharge and cess). Short-term capital losses can be set off against short- or long-term gains.

Stop-loss order M01M04AM03

A conditional order that becomes active when the last traded price reaches a trigger: a stop-loss limit (SL) becomes a limit order and may not fill if price gaps through, a stop-loss market (SL-M) becomes a market order. As a trade rule, a stop is a barrier whose hit probability and expected exit time follow from Brownian barrier results.

Straddle M09M09A

A long (or short) call and put with the same strike and expiry. At the money it costs about 0.8Fστ0.8F\sigma\sqrt\tau (e−rτFστ2/πe^{-r\tau}F\sigma\sqrt\tau\sqrt{2/\pi}); a long straddle profits if the absolute move exceeds the premium, and delta-hedged it is a bet that realised volatility exceeds implied.

Straddle-implied move M09AM06A

The expected absolute move of the underlying to expiry read from the ATM straddle price: under normality E∣ΔS∣=Sστ2/πE|\Delta S| = S\sigma\sqrt\tau\sqrt{2/\pi}, which the straddle approximately equals. The move falls short of the straddle about 57.5% of the time under normality; on 31 Nifty expiries in 2026 the realised move averaged 84% of the straddle.

Strangle M09M09AM14

A long (or short) OTM put and OTM call with the same expiry and different strikes. A short strangle collects premium and loses if the underlying moves beyond either strike by more than the credit; it is short gamma and vega with unbounded loss.

Strike price M08M09A

The fixed price KK at which an option holder may buy (call) or sell (put) the underlying. NSE lists a ladder of strikes for each expiry; on a corporate action other than an ordinary dividend, strikes and lot sizes of stock options are adjusted.

Structural break M13A

A change in the parameters of a model (a mean, a slope, a cointegrating relation) at some date. Breaks kill pairs trades and regime-dependent rules; they are tested with the Chow test at a known date, and with sup-F, CUSUM or Bai–Perron when the date is unknown.

STT (securities transaction tax) M01M08M07M09A

A tax on exchange-traded securities transactions. From 1 Apr 2026 (as of 6 Nov 2026): equity delivery 0.1% on buy and sell; intraday equity 0.025% on sell; futures 0.05% on sell; options 0.15% of premium on sell and 0.15% of intrinsic value on exercise. It is an allowable expense against business income but not against capital gains.

SUE (standardised unexpected earnings) M06A

An earnings surprise scaled by its own variability: SUEq=(dq−δ^q)/s^q\text{SUE}_q = (d_q - \hat\delta_q)/\hat s_q, where dq=Eq−Eq−4d_q = E_q - E_{q-4} is the seasonal change in quarterly EPS and δ^q,s^q\hat\delta_q, \hat s_q its estimated drift and standard deviation. It is the sorting variable for post-earnings-announcement drift.

Support and resistance M04AM04

Price levels where falls (support) or rises (resistance) are said to stall, often marked by prior swing lows and highs or round numbers. As hypotheses they must beat the random-walk benchmark: after a driftless price touches a level, bounce and break are equally likely; a swing pivot is only known kk bars after it forms.

Survivorship bias M04M06A

Bias from studying only assets that still exist (current index members, live funds, listed companies), omitting those that failed or were delisted. It inflates average returns: if survival requires R>−dR > -d, the observed mean is μ+σφ(a)/(1−Φ(a))\mu + \sigma\varphi(a)/(1 - \Phi(a)) with a=(−d−μ)/σa = (-d - \mu)/\sigma.

Swing pricing M06B

Moving the dealing price away from NAV, down for net redemptions and up for net subscriptions, by a swing factor that covers the cost of trading to meet the flow. With the factor equal to the cost, remaining holders are unaffected (M06B Proposition 6B.2.2). Applies to Indian open-ended debt schemes since March 2022.

Swing trading M04M04A

Trading that holds positions for days to weeks to capture one leg of a trend, typically with technical entries, defined stops and position sizing from a risk budget. Its practitioner methods (Weinstein, Minervini, O'Neil, Darvas) are treated in the course as codable hypotheses.

T

T-bill M11M10M08

A Government of India treasury bill, a short-term zero-coupon government security (91, 182 or 364 days) issued at a discount by RBI auction. Its yield is the short-end risk-free rate that repo changes move first.

T+0 settlement M01

Optional same-day settlement introduced by SEBI in beta from 28 Mar 2024 and widened to up to the top 500 stocks from January 2025, with broker participation optional. Its 2026 volumes could not be verified and are believed small; T+1 is the operating regime.

T+1 settlement M01M04A

Rolling settlement on the next trading day after the trade: funds and shares move between brokers through the clearing corporation and depositories on T+1. All Indian equities have settled T+1 since 27 Jan 2023; under T+1 the ex-date is reported to equal the record date.

T2T (trade-for-trade) M04AM01

An exchange segment in which every trade must be settled by delivery, with no intraday netting, so a buy and sell on the same day are settled separately. Exchanges move stocks into it as a surveillance measure; delivery percentage is mechanically high there.

Tail index M02

The exponent α\alpha of a power-law tail, P(∣X∣>x)≈Cx−αP(|X| > x) \approx Cx^{-\alpha}: moments of order pp exist iff p<αp < \alpha. Estimated by the Hill estimator, it is near 3 for daily Nifty returns, so the fourth moment (kurtosis) is barely or not finite.

Tangency portfolio M14M06

The risky portfolio with the highest Sharpe ratio, wT=Σ−1(μ−rf1)/1′Σ−1(μ−rf1)w_T = \Sigma^{-1}(\mu - r_f\mathbf 1)/\mathbf 1'\Sigma^{-1}(\mu - r_f\mathbf 1), where a line from the risk-free rate touches the efficient frontier. With a risk-free asset every mean–variance investor holds it plus cash (two-fund separation).

Taylor rule M11

A benchmark for the policy rate: i=r∗+π+0.5(π−π∗)+0.5xi = r^* + \pi + 0.5(\pi - \pi^*) + 0.5x, with neutral real rate r∗r^*, inflation π\pi, target π∗\pi^* and output gap xx. The Taylor principle requires the nominal rate to rise more than one-for-one with inflation for stability.

Term premium M11

The extra yield investors require to hold a long bond rather than roll short ones: yn=1n∑kErt+k+TPny_n = \frac1n\sum_k\mathbb E r_{t+k} + TP_n. It moves with inflation uncertainty and central-bank balance sheets, and makes the yield curve an imperfect forecast of policy rates.

Term structure (implied volatility) M09AM09

Implied volatility across expiries for a fixed moneyness. Total implied variance σ2τ\sigma^2\tau must not fall with expiry; an inverted structure (short expiries above long) signals stress or a scheduled event, whose variance can be extracted from two expiries.

Terminal value M06

The value at the end of a DCF's explicit forecast period of all later cash flows, usually a Gordon growing perpetuity FN(1+gT)/(W−gT)F_N(1 + g_T)/(W - g_T). It is often most of the total value, so the stable growth gTg_T and the return on new capital behind it deserve the most scrutiny.

Theory of storage M10M07

The theory that futures spreads of storable commodities are set by inventory decisions: with ample inventories the spread is near full carry (contango), and as inventories fall the convenience yield rises and the curve moves into backwardation. A futures curve is therefore an inventory signal.

Theta M08M09M09A

The rate of change of an option's value with the passage of time, Θ=∂V/∂t\Theta = \partial V/\partial t, quoted per year in the notes (divide by 365 for per calendar day). Long options have negative theta; for an ATM option Θ≈−σS/(22πτ)\Theta \approx -\sigma S/(2\sqrt{2\pi\tau}), and the identity Θ+12σ2S2Γ+(r−q)SΔ−rV=0\Theta + \tfrac12\sigma^2S^2\Gamma + (r-q)S\Delta - rV = 0 ties it to gamma.

Tick size M01

The minimum price increment for orders in a security; NSE sets it by price band through circulars. A one-tick spread is the narrowest possible quoted spread.

Total expense ratio (TER) M06BM00

The annual cost of a fund as a percentage of its assets, accrued daily, so the NAV is already net of it. Under the SEBI (Mutual Funds) Regulations, 2026 it is the base expense ratio plus brokerage, transaction costs and statutory levies (M06B (6B.6)).

Total return index (TRI) M01M07

An index that reinvests dividends on the ex-date: TRIt=TRIt−1(It+IDt)/It−1\text{TRI}_t = \text{TRI}_{t-1}(I_t + \text{ID}_t)/I_{t-1} with IDt\text{ID}_t the index dividend in points. It diverges from the price index by about the dividend yield a year; SEBI requires mutual funds to be benchmarked against it.

Tracking difference M06B

The return shortfall of an index fund or ETF against its index over a period, RI−RFR_I - R_F in this course (often reported with the opposite sign). Approximately TER + cash drag + trading costs − lending income ± dividend timing (M06B (6B.25)).

Tracking error M06B

The annualised standard deviation of the difference between a fund's and its benchmark's returns. SEBI caps it at 2% for equity ETFs and index funds; for active funds it measures the size of the active bet (M06B (6B.19), (6B.24)).

Trail commission M06B

Distributor commission paid as a percentage of the investor's current holding for as long as it is held, out of the scheme's expenses. Indian mutual funds have used a full trail model, without upfront commission, since SEBI's circular of October 2018.

Trailing stop M04A

A stop that follows the running peak of a position at a fixed distance dd and exits on a give-back of dd. Under Brownian motion the peak reached before exit is exponentially distributed and the give-back is exactly dd; like any exit rule it creates no expectancy on a driftless price.

Transmission (monetary) M11

The chain by which a policy-rate change reaches the economy and asset prices: overnight money-market rates, then T-bill and bond yields, lending and deposit rates (repo-linked loans within a quarter, MCLR loans with a lag), the exchange rate, earnings and discount rates.

Triple-barrier labelling M13M04A

Labelling each trade by which of three barriers its price path touches first: a profit-taking level, a stop-loss level (both often multiples of a volatility forecast) or a time limit. The touch time is the label's end, which purging needs.

Trustee (mutual fund) M06B

The trustee company or board that holds a mutual fund's assets in trust for unitholders, supervises the AMC and can wind up a scheme. Under the 2026 Regulations a winding up on the trustees' opinion needs the consent of a simple majority of unitholders voting (M06B · 6B.1).

TWAP M05

Time-weighted average price: the average of prices over equally spaced times, and the execution schedule that trades equal amounts in equal time slices. It is the natural benchmark when volume profiles are unknown or unreliable.

U

UIP (uncovered interest parity) M11

The hypothesis that the expected depreciation of a currency equals the interest differential, so that unhedged carry earns nothing on average. It fails empirically (the forward premium puzzle); its failure is the basis of the carry trade.

Unit root M13AM10

A root of 1 in the autoregressive polynomial, as in a random walk yt=yt−1+ety_t = y_{t-1} + e_t: shocks are permanent and the variance grows with time. OLS estimates are then non-standard (Dickey–Fuller distributions), which is why unit-root and cointegration tests need special critical values.

Upper and lower circuit M01M02M06A

A stock is at its upper (lower) circuit when its price reaches the top (bottom) of its daily price band; it is then "locked", with only buyers (sellers) left. Closing prices of locked stocks are not prices at which the other side could have traded, which matters in backtests.

USDINR M11M10M12

The number of rupees per US dollar; a rise is rupee depreciation. Its drivers in the course are oil and the current account, portfolio flows (FPI), the rate differential and RBI intervention; for a foreign investor, 1+RUSD=(1+RINR)S0/S11 + R_{\text{USD}} = (1 + R_{\text{INR}})S_0/S_1.

V

Value of new business (VNB) M06A

The present value of future profits from the policies a life insurer wrote in the period, net of the cost of capital; the VNB margin is VNB divided by APE. It is the growth input to an embedded-value valuation.

Value-at-Risk (VaR) M02M14

The loss not exceeded with probability cc over a horizon, VaRc=−q1−c(r)\mathrm{VaR}_c = -q_{1-c}(r); for a normal return −μ+σΦ−1(c)-\mu + \sigma\Phi^{-1}(c). Normal and Student-tt VaR agree near 99% at matched volatility but diverge at 99.9%; VaR is not subadditive. Indian clearing corporations also use "VaR margin" for the cash segment.

Vanna M08M09A

The cross-sensitivity ∂2V/∂S ∂σ\partial^2V/\partial S\,\partial\sigma: the change of delta with volatility, equivalently of vega with the underlying. It is one of the cross terms in the Taylor expansion of option P&L and matters when spot and implied volatility move together, as in index sell-offs. Not named in the notes.

Variance ratio M02

The variance of qq-period returns divided by qq times the one-period variance, VR(q)=1+2∑j=1q−1(1−j/q)ρjVR(q) = 1 + 2\sum_{j=1}^{q-1}(1 - j/q)\rho_j. It equals 1 for a random walk, exceeds 1 under positive autocorrelation (trending) and falls below 1 under mean reversion; Lo–MacKinlay's zz and robust z∗z^* test it.

Variance risk premium (VRP) M09M09AM13

The difference between risk-neutral and real-world expected realised variance, VRP=EQ[RV]−EP[RV]=Cov⁡(M,RV)/E[M]VRP = E^{\mathbb Q}[RV] - E^{\mathbb P}[RV] = \operatorname{Cov}(M, RV)/E[M]. It is positive on average for equity indices (implied above realised), so option buyers pay it and sellers earn it with crash risk.

Variance swap M09

A contract paying realised variance minus a fixed strike times a notional. Its fair strike is replicated by a static strip of OTM options weighted by 1/K21/K^2, Kvar=(2erT/T)∫Q(K)/K2 dKK_{\text{var}} = (2e^{rT}/T)\int Q(K)/K^2\,dK, which is the VIX and India VIX formula; jumps make the replication imperfect.

Vega M08M09M09A

The sensitivity of an option's value to implied volatility, V=∂V/∂σ=Se−qτφ(d1)τ\mathcal V = \partial V/\partial\sigma = Se^{-q\tau}\varphi(d_1)\sqrt\tau under Black–Scholes, quoted per 1.00 of σ\sigma in the notes (divide by 100 for per vol point). It is largest for ATM, longer-dated options.

Volatility clustering M02M13M04A

The tendency of large returns to follow large returns of either sign: returns are nearly uncorrelated but their squares and absolute values are positively autocorrelated. A martingale-difference return with stochastic volatility has this property and excess kurtosis; GARCH models it.

Volatility drag M02M03M08

The gap between the arithmetic mean return and the long-run compound growth rate: Eln⁡(1+R)≈μ−σ2/2E\ln(1 + R) \approx \mu - \sigma^2/2, exact under lognormality. It is why a volatile asset with the same mean grows more slowly, why the median of GBM is below its mean, and why over-leverage destroys growth.

Volatility targeting M14

Scaling exposure inversely to forecast volatility so that portfolio volatility stays near a target. It raises the Sharpe ratio when expected returns do not rise with volatility, SVT=μE[1/σ]/1+μ2Var⁡(1/σ)S_{VT} = \mu E[1/\sigma]/\sqrt{1 + \mu^2\operatorname{Var}(1/\sigma)}, but cuts exposure only after volatility has risen.

Vomma (volga) M08M09

The second derivative of option value with respect to volatility, ∂2V/∂σ2=Vd1d2/σ\partial^2V/\partial\sigma^2 = \mathcal V d_1d_2/\sigma under Black–Scholes: the convexity of the price in volatility. It is near zero ATM and positive for OTM options, which is why wings gain when volatility of volatility is high.

VWAP M05M04AM01

Volume-weighted average price, ∑ipivi/∑ivi\sum_ip_iv_i/\sum_iv_i over a period's trades. It is an execution benchmark (a volume-proportional schedule attains it), an intraday reference level for traders, and the basis of NSE's pre-2026 close and of derivative expiry settlement (last 30 minutes, from 7 Dec 2026).

W

WACC M06

Weighted average cost of capital: EVke+DVkd(1−τ)\frac EVk_e + \frac DVk_d(1 - \tau), the discount rate for free cash flow to the firm. Growth creates value only when the return on new invested capital exceeds it.

Walk-forward analysis M04M13

Repeatedly fitting or selecting a strategy's parameters on a training window, freezing them, and testing on the next window, then rolling forward and concatenating the test segments into one out-of-sample equity curve. It never trains on the future but tests each observation only once.

Weekly expiry M09AM01M09M08

Index option series expiring every week. Since 20 Nov 2024 each exchange may have one benchmark weekly: Nifty on NSE (Tuesdays since 1 Sep 2025, moved to the previous trading day on holidays) and Sensex on BSE (Thursdays). No decision to abolish weeklies had been found as of 6 Nov 2026.

White's Reality Check M04

A bootstrap test of whether the best of many trading rules beats a benchmark after accounting for the search over all rules: it compares the best rule's performance with the bootstrap distribution of the maximum. Applied to classic chart rules on the Dow it removed most of their apparent significance.

WPI M11

India's Wholesale Price Index, a measure of producer and wholesale prices of goods; it has no services and differs from CPI, which is the RBI's target. Not covered in the notes.

Y

Yang–Zhang estimator M09

A range-based variance estimator robust to drift and opening gaps: VO+kVC+(1−k)VRSV_O + kV_C + (1 - k)V_{RS}, combining the overnight (open) variance, the open-to-close variance and the Rogers–Satchell estimator with k=0.34/(1.34+(n+1)/(n−1))k = 0.34/(1.34 + (n+1)/(n-1)).

Yield curve M11

Yields of government bonds plotted against maturity. It normally slopes up because of term premia; an inverted curve (short yields above long) reflects expected rate cuts and has preceded recessions, but it is not a reliable timing signal.

Yield to maturity (YTM) M11

The single discount rate yy that equates a bond's price to the present value of its cash flows, P=∑kCFk(1+y/m)−mtkP = \sum_kCF_k(1 + y/m)^{-mt_k}. It is unique because the price is strictly decreasing and convex in yy.

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