Markets: A Rigorous Course

M03 · Problem 12 ★★★ Check

The Lundberg exponent at half Kelly

For p=0.55p = 0.55, b=1b = 1: (a) Compute θ\theta for f=0.05f = 0.05 (half Kelly) numerically and compare with the small-bet approximation 2/c−12/c - 1. (b) Give the bound on the probability of ever halving and compare with the continuous-time value 0.530.5^3. (c) Explain why simulations over a finite number of bets give a slightly smaller probability than the bound. (d) Prove that 1/Wn1/W_n is a martingale for the Kelly bettor and that Wn(f)/Wn(f∗)W_n(f)/W_n(f^*) is a martingale for every fixed f∈[0,1)f \in [0, 1). Reconcile this with Proposition 3.3(b), which says the same ratio tends to 0 almost surely.

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