Markets: A Rigorous Course

M04 · Problem 14 ★★ Check

Deflating a backtest

You test 200 variants of a Trend-Template breakout system on four years of daily data. The best has an annual Sharpe ratio of 1.6, skewness −0.3-0.3, kurtosis 5. Across the 200 trials the annualised Sharpe ratios have standard deviation 0.5. (a) Compute S0S_0 (per day and annualised) and the DSR. (b) Compare the cross-trial dispersion with what pure noise would produce over four years. What does that suggest? (c) Apply the McLean–Pontiff 58% post-publication haircut to the best Sharpe ratio. What annual Sharpe ratio would you plan for?

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Commas, ₹, % and 1e-3 notation are accepted.

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