Markets: A Rigorous Course

M04 · Problem 5 ★★ Check

Overlapping returns

Daily excess returns are iid with variance σ2\sigma^2. You compute 20-day forward returns YtY_t on each of N=500N=500 consecutive days. (a) Show that for N≥hN\ge h, exactly, Var⁡(Yˉ)=σ2N2∑k=−(h−1)h−1(N−∣k∣)(h−∣k∣)\operatorname{Var}(\bar Y)=\frac{\sigma^2}{N^2}\sum_{k=-(h-1)}^{h-1}(N-|k|)(h-|k|). (b) Evaluate it for h=20h=20, N=500N=500, and compare with h2σ2/Nh^2\sigma^2/N and the naive hσ2/Nh\sigma^2/N. (c) A research note reports t=4.0t=4.0 using the naive standard error. What is the corrected tt?

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