Markets: A Rigorous Course

M05 · Problem 17 ★★★

A stylised model of expiry-day index pushing

A trader holds an option book whose P&L is −D(ST−Sr)-D(S_T - S_r), i.e. it gains DD rupees per index point that the settlement level STS_T falls below a reference SrS_r set earlier in the day. The trader can buy QQ units of the index basket in the morning, which raises the index by λQ\lambda Q (and lets her set up the option book at the higher reference level), and sell them before settlement, which lowers it by λQ\lambda Q. Each leg costs 12λQ2\tfrac12\lambda Q^2 in impact. (a) Show that if settlement is the instantaneous index level, the trader's profit is DλQ−λQ2D\lambda Q - \lambda Q^2; find the optimal QQ and profit. (b) If settlement is the average index level over a window during which the selling is spread evenly, show that the option gain halves and compute the new optimum. (c) What does this say about VWAP versus last-price settlement? (This is a toy model of the mechanism alleged in SEBI's 2025 order, not a description of any firm's trades.)

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