Markets: A Rigorous Course

M05 · Problem 3 ★★

Roll with adverse selection

Let mt=mt−1+λqt+εtm_t = m_{t-1} + \lambda q_t + \varepsilon_t and pt=mt+c qtp_t = m_t + c\,q_t, with qtq_t i.i.d. ±1\pm1 equally likely, independent of the i.i.d. εt\varepsilon_t, and c,λ≥0c, \lambda \ge 0. The dealer's quotes before trade tt are mt−1+εt±(c+λ)m_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t \pm (c + \lambda). (a) Compute Cov⁡(Δpt,Δpt−1)\operatorname{Cov}(\Delta p_t, \Delta p_{t-1}) and the Roll estimate of the spread. (b) Decompose the effective half-spread into realised half-spread and price impact as in (5.1), with the post-trade mid mtm_t. (c) Which component does the Roll estimator measure? Interpret.

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