Markets: A Rigorous Course

M07 · Problem 17 ★★ Check

Negative prices and storage

(a) Using the cash-and-carry argument between two futures maturities T1<T2T_1 < T_2 with storage cost UU per barrel (paid at T1T_1) for the interval, show FT2≤(FT1+U)er(T2−T1)F_{T_2} \le (F_{T_1} + U)e^{r(T_2 - T_1)}, so FT1≥FT2e−r(T2−T1)−UF_{T_1} \ge F_{T_2}e^{-r(T_2 - T_1)} - U. (b) Suppose (hypothetically) that on 20 Apr 2020 the June WTI contract traded at $20 and the May contract settled at −$37.63. With r=1%r = 1\% and one month between the maturities, what is the smallest storage cost per barrel per month consistent with no arbitrage? Interpret. (c) Why could the price of a cash-settled MCX contract become negative even though no barrel was ever delivered in India?

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