Markets: A Rigorous Course

M07 · Problem 7 ★★★ Check

The futures–forward gap under Vasicek rates

Under Q\mathbb{Q}, dSt/St=rt dt+σ dWtSdS_t/S_t = r_t\,dt + \sigma\,dW^S_t, drt=κ(θ−rt) dt+η dWtrdr_t = \kappa(\theta - r_t)\,dt + \eta\,dW^r_t, d⟨WS,Wr⟩t=ρ dtd\langle W^S, W^r\rangle_t = \rho\,dt. (a) Show that IT=∫0Trs dsI_T = \int_0^T r_s\,ds is Gaussian with Var⁡(IT)=η2∫0TB(s,T)2ds\operatorname{Var}(I_T) = \eta^2\int_0^T B(s,T)^2ds, where B(s,T)=(1−e−κ(T−s))/κB(s,T) = (1 - e^{-\kappa(T-s)})/\kappa, and that Cov⁡(WTS,IT)=ρη∫0TB(s,T) ds\operatorname{Cov}(W^S_T, I_T) = \rho\eta\int_0^T B(s,T)\,ds. (b) Using Prop. 7.6, show that F0/G0=exp⁡(Cov⁡(ln⁡ST,IT))=exp⁡(η2I2+ρσηI1)F_0/G_0 = \exp\left(\operatorname{Cov}(\ln S_T, I_T)\right) = \exp\left(\eta^2 I_2 + \rho\sigma\eta I_1\right) with I1=∫0TB dsI_1 = \int_0^T B\,ds and I2=∫0TB2dsI_2 = \int_0^T B^2ds. (c) Derive the closed forms I1=(T−B0)/κI_1 = (T - B_0)/\kappa and I2=(T−2B0+(1−e−2κT)/(2κ))/κ2I_2 = \left(T - 2B_0 + (1 - e^{-2\kappa T})/(2\kappa)\right)/\kappa^2, with B0=B(0,T)B_0 = B(0,T). (d) Evaluate F0/G0−1F_0/G_0 - 1 for (i) σ=0.15\sigma = 0.15, κ=0.3\kappa = 0.3, η=0.01\eta = 0.01, ρ=0.3\rho = 0.3, T=0.25T = 0.25, and (ii) σ=0.25\sigma = 0.25, κ=0.3\kappa = 0.3, η=0.02\eta = 0.02, ρ=±0.9\rho = \pm 0.9, T=2T = 2. Express (i) in Nifty points at 24,700 and compare it with the day-to-day noise in the end-of-day Nifty basis (7.3, 7.8.2).

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