Markets: A Rigorous Course

M09 · Problem 12 ★★ Check

Kelly with a fat left tail

A short-option strategy returns, per unit of capital staked, +5%+5\% with probability 0.85, −10%-10\% with probability 0.13 and −60%-60\% with probability 0.02. (a) Compute μ1,μ2,μ3\mu_1,\mu_2,\mu_3, the Gaussian Kelly μ/σ2\mu/\sigma^2, μ1/μ2\mu_1/\mu_2 and 1/L1/L. (b) Find the exact Kelly fraction numerically and the growth rate per trade at f∗f^* and at f∗/2f^*/2. (c) What happens to a trader who bets the Gaussian Kelly fraction? Relate to Proposition 9.11.

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Commas, ₹, % and 1e-3 notation are accepted.

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