Markets: A Rigorous Course

M09 · Problem 8 ★★ Check

Variance-swap replication and discretisation

(a) Redo the proof of Proposition 9.9 with a general split point S∗S^* instead of FF, and show that the extra terms are 2T[ln⁡FS∗−(FS∗−1)]\frac2T\left[\ln\frac{F}{S^*}-\left(\frac F{S^*}-1\right)\right]. Deduce the correction term in (9.25). (b) Take F=100F=100, r=0r=0, T=30/365T=30/365, flat implied vol 20%, and only five strikes 80, 90, 100, 110, 120. The OTM option prices are Q=(0.0000589, 0.07059, 2.28715, 0.12047, 0.0012536)Q=(0.0000589,\ 0.07059,\ 2.28715,\ 0.12047,\ 0.0012536) (put, put, average of call and put, call, call). Compute (9.25). Explain why it differs so much from 0.040.04, and in which direction strike spacing and truncation bias the estimate.

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