Gold fell 11.8% in March 2026 while a war was under way in the Gulf. (a) Write down the GRAM-style regression you would run to attribute the move, naming the data series (with FRED or Yahoo identifiers) and the frequency. (b) State two hypotheses (rates channel versus liquidation) and what each predicts for gold's co-movement with DFII10, DXY and equities during March. (c) What evidence would distinguish them? (d) What does this imply about using gold as a hedge for an Indian equity portfolio in an oil shock?
M10 · Problem 17 ★★
Case analysis: gold in March 2026
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