Markets: A Rigorous Course

M10 · Problem 19 ★ Check

Reading a COT line

A disaggregated futures-and-options-combined report for COMEX gold shows Managed Money long 180,000 and short 45,000 contracts, with open interest 520,000 (illustrative). Over the previous 156 weeks the share x=N/OIx = N/\mathrm{OI} had mean 0.12 and standard deviation 0.07, and 149 of the 156 readings were below the current one. (a) Compute the net position NN and its share of open interest xx. (b) Compute the zz-score (10.23) and the percentile. (c) Convert NN to tonnes (one contract is 100 troy ounces; one troy ounce is 31.1034768 g) and to US dollars at $4,098/oz. (d) The report is dated Tuesday 3 November 2026. On which day and at what Indian time could you first trade on it, and which three days of price action does it not reflect? (e) Give one reason the percentile is more robust than the zz-score here, and one thing it cannot tell you.

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Commas, ₹, % and 1e-3 notation are accepted.

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