Markets: A Rigorous Course

M10 · Problem 21 ★★ Check

The seasonal FF-test

(a) Prove the second equality in (10.27): (RSSR−RSSU)/qRSSU/(n−k)=R2/q(1−R2)/(n−k)\frac{(\mathrm{RSS}_R - \mathrm{RSS}_U)/q}{\mathrm{RSS}_U/(n-k)} = \frac{R^2/q}{(1-R^2)/(n-k)} with q=11q = 11, k=12k = 12. (b) The month-dummy regression for NG=F over Sep 2000–Oct 2026 (n=314n = 314) has R2=0.0697R^2 = 0.0697. Compute FF, its pp-value and the 5% critical value of F11,302F_{11,302}. (c) Show that β^m\hat\beta_m in (10.26) is the sample mean of month mm's returns, and that with 26 observations and a monthly standard deviation of 16.08% its standard error is about 3.15%. How large would a month's true mean have to be for a 5% two-sided test to detect it with 80% power? (d) Why does the test reject more readily with classical than with HC-robust standard errors for gas? (Think about which months are most volatile.)

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