Festival demand: where should it show up?

Indian gold demand is concentrated around Dhanteras and the October–December wedding season. (a) Using Proposition 10.13 and the stock–flow argument of 10.4, explain why this predictable demand should not produce predictable returns in the dollar gold price. (b) Using the import-parity formula of 10.5, define the Indian domestic premium as $\pi_t = P^{\text{MCX}}_t/P^{\text{parity}}_t - 1$, and argue that festival demand should appear in $\pi_t$ rather than in the dollar price. Which way should $\pi_t$ move in the two weeks before Dhanteras, and what limits its size? (c) Design a test. Dhanteras falls on different Gregorian dates each year (6 Nov in 2026). Explain how the moving date lets you separate a festival effect from an October/November calendar effect. Specify the event window, the regression, the standard errors and the multiple-testing control, before looking at any data. (d) Name two confounders (one domestic, one global) that tend to occur in the same weeks, and how you would control for each.