Markets: A Rigorous Course

M11 · Problem 12 ★★★ Check

Fama decomposition

(a) In Proposition 11.10, take Var⁡(q)=1\operatorname{Var}(q)=1, Var⁡(p)=4\operatorname{Var}(p)=4 and Cov⁡(p,q)=−1.5\operatorname{Cov}(p,q)=-1.5, in squared percent per month. Compute bb. (b) Show that if pp and qq are uncorrelated, then b=Var⁡(q)/(Var⁡(q)+Var⁡(p))∈[0,1]b=\operatorname{Var}(q)/(\operatorname{Var}(q)+\operatorname{Var}(p))\in[0,1], so a negative bb is impossible. (c) With a=0a=0 and bb from (a), compute the expected carry return for a rate differential of 2% a year. (d) Why does a positive expected carry return not contradict market efficiency?

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