Compare the 1990–91 Gulf War and the 2026 Iran war. (a) For each, estimate the net supply loss using (12.21) and the facts in the notes. (b) Identify the news event that collapsed the escalation branch (17 Jan 1991; 7–8 Apr 2026) and the size of the Brent move. (c) Explain why "buy the invasion" worked in 1990–91 and failed for anyone who bought after the 8 Apr 2026 ceasefire. (d) What does each episode imply for India's external position?
M12 · Problem 15 ★★★
Case analysis: 1990 and 2026
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