Markets: A Rigorous Course

M12 · Problem 3 ★★ Check

Power and window length

A single firm has a one-day abnormal return AA on day 0 and idiosyncratic sd σ\sigma. Using the constant-mean approximation Var⁡(CAR)≈σ2(L2+L22/L1)\operatorname{Var}(CAR)\approx\sigma^2(L_2+L_2^2/L_1) and a normal approximation to the tt-test with critical value 1.97, derive the power of a two-sided 5% test as a function of L2L_2. Evaluate it for A=5%A=5\%, σ=1.5%\sigma=1.5\%, L1=240L_1=240 and L2∈{1,3,11}L_2\in\{1,3,11\}, and compare with the simulated values 0.91, 0.49 and 0.16 in the notes.

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