Markets: A Rigorous Course

M13 · Problem 1 ★★

Noise predictors have negative OOS R2R^2

Excess returns are rt+1=μ+εt+1r_{t+1} = \mu + \varepsilon_{t+1} with ε\varepsilon i.i.d. (0,σε2)(0,\sigma_\varepsilon^2), and xtx_t is an i.i.d. (0,σx2)(0,\sigma_x^2) "predictor" independent of all ε\varepsilon. Assume μ\mu is known, so the benchmark forecast is μ\mu. (a) For the fixed forecast r^t+1=μ+c xt\hat r_{t+1} = \mu + c\,x_t, show that the population out-of-sample R2R^2 is −c2σx2/σε2-c^2\sigma_x^2/\sigma_\varepsilon^2. (b) Now cc is replaced by the OLS slope β^\hat\beta from an independent training sample of size TT (regressing r−μr - \mu on xx without intercept). Show that, to first order, E[ROS2]≈−1/T\mathbb E[R^2_{OS}] \approx -1/T. What does this imply for a researcher who tries kk noise predictors in one multiple regression?

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