Excess returns are with i.i.d. , and is an i.i.d. "predictor" independent of all . Assume is known, so the benchmark forecast is . (a) For the fixed forecast , show that the population out-of-sample is . (b) Now is replaced by the OLS slope from an independent training sample of size (regressing on without intercept). Show that, to first order, . What does this imply for a researcher who tries noise predictors in one multiple regression?
M13 · Problem 1 ★★
Noise predictors have negative OOS
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