Markets: A Rigorous Course

M13 · Problem 4 ★★ Check

(MA(1) and the bid-ask bounce)

Let Xt=et+θet−1X_t = e_t + \theta e_{t-1}. (a) Show ρ1=θ/(1+θ2)\rho_1 = \theta/(1+\theta^2) and ρk=0\rho_k = 0 for k≥2k\ge2, and prove ∣ρ1∣≤1/2|\rho_1|\le 1/2. (b) Show that θ\theta and 1/θ1/\theta give the same autocorrelations, and explain why one restricts to ∣θ∣<1|\theta|<1. (c) Price changes of a stock that trades alternately at the bid and the ask have negative first-order autocorrelation (the Roll model, M05). If the sample ρ^1\hat\rho_1 of a stock's tick-by-tick price changes is −0.3-0.3, what is the invertible θ^\hat\theta?

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Commas, ₹, % and 1e-3 notation are accepted.

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