Let , , i.i.d. , and let be the OLS coefficient from regressing on without a constant. (a) Prove and deduce that the sign of equals the sign of . (b) Show that and evaluate it to four decimals. (c) A colleague fits AR(1) models without a constant to 200 independent simulated random walks of length 1,000 and reports that "most of them mean-revert". About how many should show ? What is wrong with the conclusion?
M13A · Problem 1 ★★ Check
The DF distribution and the probability of "mean reversion"
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