Markets: A Rigorous Course

M13A · Problem 1 ★★ Check

The DF distribution and the probability of "mean reversion"

Let yt=yt−1+ety_t = y_{t-1} + e_t, y0=0y_0 = 0, ete_t i.i.d. N(0,σ2)N(0,\sigma^2), and let ρ^\hat\rho be the OLS coefficient from regressing yty_t on yt−1y_{t-1} without a constant. (a) Prove ∑t=1Tyt−1et=12(yT2−∑t=1Tet2)\sum_{t=1}^Ty_{t-1}e_t = \tfrac12(y_T^2 - \sum_{t=1}^T e_t^2) and deduce that the sign of ρ^−1\hat\rho - 1 equals the sign of yT2−∑et2y_T^2 - \sum e_t^2. (b) Show that lim⁡T→∞P(ρ^<1)=P(χ12<1)\lim_{T\to\infty}P(\hat\rho<1) = P(\chi^2_1 < 1) and evaluate it to four decimals. (c) A colleague fits AR(1) models without a constant to 200 independent simulated random walks of length 1,000 and reports that "most of them mean-revert". About how many should show ρ^<1\hat\rho<1? What is wrong with the conclusion?

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