Markets: A Rigorous Course

M13A · Problem 14 ★★★ Check

Data snooping in break tests

(a) Explain why choosing the break date that maximises FF and then using the F(k,n−2k)F(k,n-2k) pp-value over-rejects. Relate this to the multiple-testing ideas of M04. (b) With n=200n = 200 and 15% trimming there are 141 candidate dates. Give the Bonferroni-corrected per-date level for a 5% family-wise test and explain why it is conservative. (c) The simulation in 13A.10.2 rejected 37% of the time at a nominal 5%. Design a simulation that would give the correct critical value for your own data, and state what it must hold fixed.

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Commas, ₹, % and 1e-3 notation are accepted.

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