Markets: A Rigorous Course

M15 · Problem 17 ★★ Check

Gap-adjusted sizing for HPCL on the same signal

The 4 Nov 2026 signal of 15.9 could have been traded in Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) instead of BPCL. From Yahoo daily bars: HPCL opened at ₹381.40 on 5 Nov 2026; its 14-day ATR (simple mean of true ranges) to 4 Nov was ₹11.20; the 99th percentile of its adverse overnight gaps over the five years to 4 Nov was g99=2.81%g_{99} = 2.81\%. The account is ₹10,00,000, risk 1% per trade, the stop is 1.5×1.5\timesATR below entry, and the gap cap in (15.9.1) is 1.5% of capital.

(a) Compute the stop price and the stop distance dd. (b) Compute the two terms of (15.9.1) and the position size QQ. Which term binds? What is the notional value, and what is the rupee risk at the stop? (c) The HPCL futures lot was 2,025 shares (NSE F&O bhavcopy, 5 Nov 2026). Compute the risk at the stop of one lot and the loss if a g99g_{99} gap opened through the stop. Can this account trade HPCL futures under the rule? (d) HPCL's 6 Nov 2026 bar was open ₹375.05, high ₹387.15, low ₹369.50, close ₹387.15. Under the exit rules of 15.9.2, what was the exit and the gross R-multiple?

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