Markets: A Rigorous Course

M15 · Problem 6 ★★★ Check

How much evidence is in 56 intraday trades?

The corrected opening-range scan of 15.3.7 produced 56 trades with mean 0.165R0.165R and standard deviation 0.760R0.760R (3 bp slippage). (a) Compute the tt-statistic. (b) Using M03 (3.2a) and (3.2b), compute the number of trades needed for t≥2t \ge 2 in expectation and for 80% power at these values of EE and ss. (c) The mean was 0.200R0.200R at 0 bp and 0.090R0.090R at 10 bp slippage per side. Assuming the mean is linear in slippage, at what slippage per side does it reach zero? (d) A sceptic assigns a prior probability of 5% that the rule has a real edge with per-trade Sharpe ratio 0.20.2 (and 95% that its edge is zero). Using the normal approximation t∼N(0.256,1)t \sim N(0.2\sqrt{56}, 1) under the alternative and N(0,1)N(0,1) under the null, compute the posterior probability of a real edge given that tt is at least the value in (a). Repeat for a prior of 20%.

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