The corrected opening-range scan of 15.3.7 produced 56 trades with mean and standard deviation (3 bp slippage). (a) Compute the -statistic. (b) Using M03 (3.2a) and (3.2b), compute the number of trades needed for in expectation and for 80% power at these values of and . (c) The mean was at 0 bp and at 10 bp slippage per side. Assuming the mean is linear in slippage, at what slippage per side does it reach zero? (d) A sceptic assigns a prior probability of 5% that the rule has a real edge with per-trade Sharpe ratio (and 95% that its edge is zero). Using the normal approximation under the alternative and under the null, compute the posterior probability of a real edge given that is at least the value in (a). Repeat for a prior of 20%.
M15 · Problem 6 ★★★ Check
How much evidence is in 56 intraday trades?
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