10.9 Natural gas and base metals (brief)

Natural gas Storable but expensive to store and move; regional markets linked by LNG. Henry Hub (NYMEX) is the US benchmark and the reference for MCX natural gas futures. The curve has a seasonal winter premium even with ample storage, so seasonal spreads, not the front spread alone, carry the inventory signal. In 2026 the Iranian strike on Ras Laffan (18 Mar) cut Qatari LNG capacity by about 17% and sent Asian LNG prices up about 140% (press reports; secondary). We did not find a verified Henry Hub level for November 2026.

Base metals Copper, aluminium, zinc, lead and nickel are priced off the London Metal Exchange (LME), with Shanghai (SHFE) increasingly important. Demand is tied to construction, power grids, EVs and Chinese industrial activity, which is why copper is read as a growth indicator. MCX lists copper (2,500 kg lot), zinc, aluminium and lead (5 MT, minis 1 MT) and nickel (250 kg) (secondary summary, Oct 2026; verify with the exchange). Their characteristic failure mode is the squeeze (10.11.3). We did not find a verified copper level for November 2026.