Markets: A Rigorous Course

M02 · Problem 3 ★★ Check

Leveraged index funds and the drag

A fund holds LL times the Nifty, rebalanced continuously, with zero financing cost. Nifty follows GBM with arithmetic drift μ=10.8%\mu = 10.8\% and volatility σ=20.2%\sigma = 20.2\% a year (the Nifty sample estimates of 2.2). (a) Show that the fund's value follows GBM with drift LμL\mu and volatility LσL\sigma, and hence that its long-run growth rate is g(L)=Lμ−L2σ2/2g(L) = L\mu - L^2\sigma^2/2. (b) Compute gg for L=1,2,3L = 1, 2, 3 and find the LL that maximises gg. What is the maximum growth rate? (c) Explain why g(L)g(L) falls below g(1)g(1) for large LL even though the arithmetic mean LμL\mu keeps rising. (This is the Kelly criterion of M03 in disguise.)

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