Markets: A Rigorous Course

M02 · Problem 6 ★★★ Check

(Variance ratio of an MA(1))

Bid–ask bounce and stale prices are often modelled by MA(1) returns rt=μ+εt+θεt−1r_t = \mu + \varepsilon_t + \theta\varepsilon_{t-1} with white-noise εt\varepsilon_t. (a) Compute ρ1\rho_1 and ρj\rho_j for j≥2j \ge 2. (b) Derive Var⁡(rt(k))\operatorname{Var}(r_t(k)) and VR(q)VR(q) in closed form, and the limit as q→∞q \to \infty. (c) Evaluate VR(5)VR(5) and the limit for θ=−0.2\theta = -0.2 and θ=0.3\theta = 0.3. (d) Contrast the shape of VR(q)VR(q) in qq with the AR(1) case of Proposition 2.7.

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