Markets: A Rigorous Course

M02 · Problem 7 ★★ Check

How precisely can you estimate volatility?

Let r1,…,rnr_1, \dots, r_n be iid with mean 0, variance σ2\sigma^2 and kurtosis κ=Er4/σ4\kappa = E r^4/\sigma^4. (a) Show that σ^2=1n∑rt2\hat\sigma^2 = \frac1n\sum r_t^2 has variance (κ−1)σ4/n(\kappa - 1)\sigma^4/n, and use the delta method to show sd⁡(σ^)/σ≈(κ−1)/(4n)\operatorname{sd}(\hat\sigma)/\sigma \approx \sqrt{(\kappa-1)/(4n)}. (b) How many daily observations give a 5% relative standard error on σ\sigma under normality? Under the Nifty sample's excess kurtosis of 15.2? (c) Why is (b) still optimistic for Nifty? (Hint: 2.6.)

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