Markets: A Rigorous Course

M04A · Problem 16 ★★★ Check

Testing support and resistance

(a) Prove Proposition 4A.2. (b) You will test whether a level-generating algorithm (Definition 4A.4) produces "bounces" more often than chance: at each touch, record whether price next moves hh against the approach direction before moving hh through the level. Under the null the bounce probability is 12\tfrac12. How many independent touches do you need to detect a true bounce probability of 0.55 with a one-sided 5% test and 80% power? (c) List three reasons why touches are not independent in practice and how Osler (2000) handled the problem with artificial levels.

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