Markets: A Rigorous Course

M04A · Problem 5 ★★ Check

What does a win rate imply?

A trader reports a 40% win rate on trades with a 1R stop and a 2.5R target, where 1R is ₹40 per share on a stock with daily volatility ₹20. (a) Under the Brownian model, what win rate would a driftless stock give? (b) Find γ=2μ/σ2\gamma=2\mu/\sigma^2 (in units of 1/R1/R) consistent with a 40% win rate, and hence the drift μ\mu in rupees per day. (c) Compute the expectancy in R and the expected holding time, and verify Proposition 4A.9.

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Commas, ₹, % and 1e-3 notation are accepted.

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