Markets: A Rigorous Course

M06 · Problem 11 ★★★ Check

Correlated inputs

For the 6.3/6.7 company, take W∼N(0.12,0.012)W \sim N(0.12, 0.01^2) and g∼N(0.15,0.042)g \sim N(0.15, 0.04^2) with correlation ρ\rho, all else fixed. (a) Using a first-order (delta-method) expansion, derive Var⁡(V)\operatorname{Var}(V) in terms of ∂V/∂W\partial V/\partial W, ∂V/∂g\partial V/\partial g, the standard deviations and ρ\rho. (b) With ∂V/∂W=−3.3575×105\partial V/\partial W = -3.3575\times10^5 and ∂V/∂g=8.8811×104\partial V/\partial g = 8.8811\times10^4, evaluate sd⁡(V)\operatorname{sd}(V) for ρ=−0.5,0,0.5\rho = -0.5, 0, 0.5. (c) Explain why the Monte Carlo standard deviations (about 6,680, 5,270 and 3,630) exceed the delta-method values, and which economic scenario corresponds to ρ<0\rho < 0.

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