M13 · Problem 14 ★★ Check

Reading a reliability table

After 100 resolved journal questions your calibration table is:

forecast	$n$	observed frequency
0.2	30	0.30
0.5	40	0.45
0.8	30	0.70

(a) Compute REL, RES, UNC and the Brier score, and check the Murphy identity. (b) Compute the Brier skill score against a coin flip and against climatology. (c) If you had issued the observed frequencies instead (0.3, 0.45, 0.7), what would your Brier score have been? Which component changed? What does this suggest about your forecasting style?

Answers

Working

Keep your working next to each problem, in markdown with maths: create a free account or sign in.

Solution

Try the problem first. Write down where you got stuck before opening it.