A forecaster gives probabilities for "Nifty falls more than 1% / moves less than 1% / rises more than 1% this week". The multi-category Brier score is with the one-hot outcome. (a) Prove it is strictly proper. (b) Compute the score of if the index rose 1.4%. (c) Show that the log score ( the realised category) is strictly proper for any number of categories.
M13 · Problem 13 ★★ Check
Multi-category Brier
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