Markets: A Rigorous Course

M13 · Problem 7 ★★ Check

Stambaugh bias on an Indian valuation predictor

You regress monthly Nifty excess returns on the lagged earnings yield over T=300T = 300 months. The yield is AR(1) with ρ^=0.97\hat\rho = 0.97; σ^u=6%\hat\sigma_u = 6\%, σ^v=0.25%\hat\sigma_v = 0.25\%, corr⁡^(u,v)=−0.85\widehat{\operatorname{corr}}(u,v) = -0.85 (illustrative). OLS gives β^=0.9\hat\beta = 0.9 with standard error 0.45. (a) Compute γ\gamma and the approximate bias of β^\hat\beta. (b) Give the bias-adjusted estimate and its tt-statistic (keep the same standard error). (c) Why is the bias positive, and why does it matter more for valuation ratios than for, say, last month's return as a predictor?

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Commas, ₹, % and 1e-3 notation are accepted.

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