Markets: A Rigorous Course

M13 · Problem 8 ★★ Check

GARCH term structure after a shock

Illustrative Nifty GARCH(1,1): α=0.10\alpha = 0.10, β=0.85\beta = 0.85, long-run volatility 16% a year (252 days). After a sell-off, σT+1\sigma_{T+1} is 30% annualised. (a) Find ω\omega and the half-life. (b) Forecast the volatility (annualised) for day 10, and the average volatility over the next 21 trading days. (c) A 1-month Nifty option is trading at an implied volatility of 24%. Compare and give two reasons the two numbers can legitimately differ.

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Commas, ₹, % and 1e-3 notation are accepted.

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