Markets: A Rigorous Course

M13A · Problem 3 ★★ Check

How spurious tt-statistics grow

Using Proposition 13A.3, show that for two independent random walks the typical size of the OLS slope tt-statistic grows like T\sqrt T. (a) In a simulation the median ∣t∣|t| is about 7.1 at T=250T=250. What median ∣t∣|t| do you expect at T=1,000T = 1{,}000? Give the ratio. (b) Explain why the median R2R^2 in the simulations of 13A.3 does not fall as TT grows. (c) Why does the Durbin–Watson statistic of such a regression tend to zero?

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