Markets: A Rigorous Course

M13A · Problem 4 ★★ Check

(a cointegrated VAR(1) by hand)

Let yt=Ayt−1+εty_t = Ay_{t-1}+\varepsilon_t with A=(0.80.20.10.9)A = \begin{pmatrix}0.8 & 0.2\\ 0.1 & 0.9\end{pmatrix}. (a) Write A−I=αβ′A - I = \alpha\beta' with β=(1,−1)′\beta = (1,-1)'. Find α\alpha. (b) Find the AR(1) coefficient of the spread β′yt\beta'y_t and its half-life in periods. (c) Find α⊥\alpha_\perp, the common trend, and the long-run impact matrix CC of (13A.13). Verify that C=lim⁡h→∞AhC = \lim_{h\to\infty}A^h. Give the long-run effect on both prices of a unit shock to ε1\varepsilon_1, and of a unit shock to ε2\varepsilon_2. (d) Which price does more of the adjusting? Interpret for a trader choosing which leg to trade aggressively.

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