Markets: A Rigorous Course

M13A · Problem 5 ★★

Engle–Granger in practice

(a) Prove that in (13A.14) b^−b=Op(T−1)\hat b - b = O_p(T^{-1}) when the pair is cointegrated, and explain why this does not justify the OLS tt-test on b^\hat b. (b) Why is the residual ADF regression run without a constant? (c) An analyst reports a residual ADF statistic of −3.10 for a pair of Indian bank stocks and calls it significant at 5% using the DF critical value −2.86. State the correct conclusion at 1%, 5% and 10%. (d) She screened 120 pairs and this was the most significant. What does that change?

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