11.15 The current state of the world (as of 6 Nov 2026)
Foundation about 5 min
| Variable | Level | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds target | 3.75–4.00% | held 28 Oct 2026; hiked 25 bp 16 Sep 2026 | [V] FOMC statements; FRED DFEDTARU |
| Market pricing | ~75–85% for +25 bp on 9 Dec 2026 | late Oct 2026 | [S] market commentary on fed funds futures |
| RBI repo / SDF / MSF | 5.50 / 5.25 / 5.75% | hiked 7 Oct 2026; read 6 Nov | [V] RBI MPC resolution, 7 Oct 2026 |
| CRR / SLR | 3.00% / 18% | 6 Nov 2026 | [V] rbi.org.in |
| US 10y | 4.90% | 4 Nov 2026 (closing high 5.31% on 5 Oct) | [V] FRED DGS10 |
| US 2y / 30y | 4.67% / 5.37% | 28 Oct 2026 | [V] FRED DGS2, DGS30 |
| US 10y real (TIPS) / breakeven | 2.64% / 2.32% (2.64% / 2.26% on 4 Nov) | 22 Oct 2026 | [V] FRED DFII10, T10YIE |
| India 10y G-sec | ~7.19% (6.94% GS 2036); ICRA generic 7.32% | 4 Nov 2026 | [S] ABSL/ICRA tracker; CCIL/FBIL publish the primary yields |
| US CPI / core CPI / core PCE | 3.7% / 2.6% (Sep) / 3.0% (Aug), 3.1% (Sep) | Sep 2026 data | [V] BLS, BEA via FRED |
| India CPI | 5.54% (2024 base) | Sep 2026 print, released 12 Oct | [V] MoSPI via DD India |
| US output gap (CBO-based) | +1.70% | 2026Q3 | [V] FRED GDPC1/GDPPOT |
| r* (HLW / LW) | 1.01% / 1.65% | 2026Q2 | [V] NY Fed |
| DXY | ~101.5 (Fed broad index 121.67 on 30 Oct) | 6 Nov 2026 | [S] DXY quote; [V] FRED DTWEXBGS |
| USDINR | FBIL ref 94.3996 (market about 94.47) | 5 Nov 2026 | [V] FBIL via RBI |
| USDINR record | 96.82 (20 May 2026) | 2026 | [V] Federal Reserve H.10; 11.11 |
| India FX reserves | US$717.1 bn (record US$785.7 bn as on 4 Sep, after a one-week rise of US$44.9 bn) | 30 Oct 2026 | [V] RBI WSS |
| Nifty 50 | 24,536.6 | 5 Nov 2026 | [V] NSE index closing file |
| Brent | EIA spot $107.03 (3 Nov); futures $94.62 settle (4 Nov), ~$98.3 (5 Nov) | 3–5 Nov 2026 | [V] EIA; [S] futures |